ALIYEV U.S. Prospects for the Development of Military-Political Cooperation of the Countries of the Post-Soviet Space
DOI 10.35775/PSI.2020.34.4.008
U.S. ALIYEV PhD of Law, Master of Psychology, PhD student at the International Security and Russian Foreign Policy Activities Chair, National Security Department, Institute of Law and National Security, Moscow, Russia
PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MILITARY-POLITICAL COOPERATION OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE POST-SOVIET SPACE
In the context of the formation of a new world order, there is a need to make changes to the development strategy of the Eurasian Economic Union and, even more broadly, integration processes in the post-Soviet space. These changes should take into account the changes taking place in the world, the emergence of new properties of world politics, which are often generically called turbulence. The components of turbulence are conflictness and uncertainty, but this is not the whole list, there are other components. On the example of the Transnistrian conflict settlement, it is shown that success in this process is possible if we are not confined to the conflict itself, but we act on the basis of Russia’s and the European Union’s mutual desire to reduce conflictness in the world and in the European region. Uncertainties can be contrasted with the emergence of military-political factor as the leading one of Eurasian integration in the form of rapprochement and the gradual merger of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Key words: new world order, turbulence, conflict, uncertainty, Eurasian integration, Transnistria conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Eurasian Economic Union, EAEU, Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO.
Introduction. The state of interaction with the countries of the former Soviet Union is in the foreground in Russia. This situation is reflected both in practical actions and in Russian strategic documents. For example, article 49 of the 2016 Foreign Policy Concept states: “The development of bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the further strengthening of integration structures operating in the CIS with Russian participation are the priority areas of the Russian Federation’s foreign policy” [13]. Russian politicians and scientists are constantly studying the possibilities of increasing the efficiency of integration processes between our countries.
It should be emphasized that the works of Russian authors published in recent years highlight a wide range of issues in this subject area [18. S. 37-51; 17; 5. S. 551-561; 6. S. 157-172; 10; 11; 16; 9].
However, the problem cannot be called unequivocally exhausted. Due to many objective circumstances, the study of the designated topic continues to maintain a high level of relevance.
From the point of view of a systematic approach, the situation in the post-Soviet space depends on the general situation in the world. This situation reflects the modern stage of world development, which consists in the transition to a new world order, from mono- and bipolar to some other. It can be a multipolar, polycentric, multilateral, or some other world [7. S. 151-168]. Whatever it is, the transition to it promises to be very tense, because in human history there have already been several transitions from one world order to another, and all of them were very tough or even cruel, accompanied by crusades and bloody wars. Today the situation in the world is very tense, and this tension continues to grow.
In characterizing the complexity and tension of the current state of the world system of politics, scientists use different terms. Among them, the term “turbulence” has become increasingly found in relation to international relations. A search for this word on the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry gives 225 results [15]. It is also used in the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation [13]. However, so far this term as a concept is poorly developed. Our study of its content made it possible to suggest that by turbulence in the world system its properties such as conflict, uncertainty, instability, instability and the desire of great powers for hegemony [8].
As a rule, the term “turbulence” is used in a negative connotation, that is, you need to do something with it, or find answers to it, or oppose it. On the whole, responding to or counteracting turbulence is difficult. It is especially difficult to do this taking into account the not too developed conceptual apparatus. Obviously, it would be easier to try to answer each of its constituent properties. In this article, we will offer our vision of what answers can be to the sharply increased conflict in international relations, as well as to the increasing uncertainty of the world environment. As we will see, these areas of Russian foreign policy can not only contribute to the formation of a new world order, but also make a significant contribution to improving the effectiveness of military-political integration processes in the post-Soviet space.
Conflict reduction. One of the most important aspects of tension and turbulence in the world are regional conflicts. Global conflict consists of regional conflicts, which, in turn, consist of specific conflicts within these regions. There are quite a few unresolved conflicts in Europe, and part of them are unresolved conflicts in the post-Soviet space. These include situations in Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh, which continue to have a significant impact on the policies of the countries of the region. Consider the issue of conflict resolution in the post-Soviet space on the example of Transnistria.
Despite an active policy towards independence and the desire of the population tested in referenda to join Russia, Transnistria is in a state of balance between Europe and Russia. Experts say that, depending on the circumstances, Transnistria may enter into an alliance with Russia or balance between Moscow and Europe [4; 1. S. 187-197]. On the one hand, Transnistria is often considered almost as a springboard for Russia in Moldova and South-Western Europe. At the same time, Transnistria is closely connected with the European Union. According to the official customs data of the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic, the EU share in the export of Transnistria in the first half of 2019 was almost 37 percent, while the EAEU share was only 11 percent, and almost all of this share belongs to Russia [3].
The events of the summer of 2019 in Moldova indicate that both Russia and the EU significantly influence the political situation in this country. The capitulation of the Democratic Party, the flight from the country of V. Plahotniuc, the formation of a coalition government of representatives of seemingly antagonists – the Socialist Party and the ACUM Party, the appointment of M. Sandu as the country's Prime Minister – all this became a reality thanks to a compromise between Russia and the EU. The executive branch, and not just President I. Dodon, has become more attentive to the development of Russian-Moldovan relations. For example, the trade representative of Moldova in Russia V. Darvay says that the time of conflicts and provocations has passed, that it is necessary to use the existing potential to the fullest extent possible in relations between Russia and Moldova [14]. In September 2019, the first meeting in three years of the Moldovan-Russian intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation was held in Chisinau. It confirmed the intention to deepen bilateral economic relations.
It seems that the Transnistrian conflict can also be resolved by coordinating the positions of Russia and the European Union, since external players play an extremely important role in it. Moscow and Brussels can mitigate the trend towards increased conflict in the world and in the European region in the formation of a new world order. To do this, you need to reconsider your attitude to the conflicts existing in the region, including in the post-Soviet space. The first of them could be just the Transnistrian conflict as the most mild and amenable to resolution. In addition, in this case there would be no need to create an additional negotiation format, since both Russia and the EU are members of the 5 + 2 format.
In other words, the Transnistrian conflict could be resolved not as a single unit, but within the framework of the strategy of Russia and the European Union to reduce conflict on the European continent and around the world. This approach could be taken as a methodology for resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which should also be resolved on the basis of going beyond the limits of this conflict exclusively, that is, in a wider framework. At the same time, the broader goal of reducing conflict in these countries, the Transcaucasian region and the world as a whole should be pursued.
Decrease in uncertainty. Another component of turbulence, in our opinion, is the high uncertainty in international relations. Its source is the imbalance in the global system. All international interaction consists of cooperation and confrontation. If they are balanced, there is moderate uncertainty in international relations. But when confrontation prevails in the world, the degree of uncertainty rises significantly. The extreme type of confrontation is war, which, as K. Clausewitz wrote, takes place for three quarters in fog, that is, in uncertainty [2. S. 78-79]. Today, as we see, the level of confrontation in international relations is off scale.
What should be the answer to this situation in the post-Soviet countries? It seems to us that it consists in the rapprochement and subsequent unification of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. There are a number of arguments in favor of this decision. In conditions of uncertainty, issues of strategy and security become paramount in relation to issues of economy or culture. Military cadres purposefully prepare for activities in the face of uncertainty, for them it is a familiar environment. But bankers, like their money, love silence, interest clarity, foreign investment does not go into war zones.
The need to increase the importance of the military-political factor is also explained by the fact that today there is no longer a clean economy and a clean policy or strategy. In military affairs, the concept of hybrid war has become widespread, which refers to the use of not only military, but various, including economic, measures to defeat the enemy. And in the economy, power rather than economic competitive measures are increasingly being used. Otherwise, you can’t name the widespread sanctions that Western countries announce almost every day today.
In this hybrid that is emerging before our eyes, the economy is clearly not in the first place. Western Policy Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey V. Lavrov described as follows: “he would like to slow down the objective processes of development of human civilization, he would like to artificially maintain his dominance, without disdaining methods of blackmail, threats, unfair and unscrupulous competition” [12]. That is, in other words, economic viability under the current conditions is fading into the background, since unfair and unscrupulous competition involves forceful, non-economic measures.
In this regard, the answer to this challenge should have a power component. It is understood that the purely economic EAEU must be supplemented by a force component, that is, the Eurasian Economic Union must become a Eurasian Union. This is required by the logic of the integration process, which manifested itself in the development of the European Union. After all, he was also at first the European Economic Community, but the problems beyond the borders of only a pure economy from a certain point could not remain outside the European integration process.
The same thing is happening now with Eurasian integration, its economic component cannot remain alone, it must be supplemented by the foreign policy, political-military, and, in the future, military-political component. Currently, on the same day, two summits of the same participants, the heads of state, are held in one place, with the exception of one state of Tajikistan, which is a member of the CSTO but is not a member of the EAEU. The strategic course for Tajikistan’s entry into the EAEU and the subsequent merger of the two structures seems strategically justified.
Speaking about the rapprochement and gradual unification of these two integration structures, we have in mind a gradual well-adjusted political work, and not a one-time decision to merge. Both the EAEU and the CSTO have certain successes and shortcomings. The prospect of rapprochement and unification should be associated with increased success and the solution of problems facing organizations. You can use the experience of the European Union, which until some point was a purely economic structure, and military-political cooperation was carried out within the framework of the Western European Union and NATO. Unification should not be a formal measure to save money, but a step towards improving the effectiveness of Eurasian integration. Thanks to this, the Eurasian countries will more confidently move forward in their development in conditions of global uncertainty.
Conclusion. To summarize, in the context of the formation of a new world order, there is a need to make changes to the development strategy of the Eurasian Economic Union and, even more broadly, integration processes in the post-Soviet space. These changes should take into account the changes taking place in the world, the emergence of new properties of world politics, which are often generically called turbulence. The components of turbulence are conflict and uncertainty, but this is not the whole list, there are other components. On the example of the Transnistrian conflict settlement, it is shown that success in this process is possible if the conflict itself is exceeded, and on the basis of the mutual desire of Russia and the European Union to reduce conflict in the world and in the European region. Uncertainties can be contrasted with the emergence of leading positions in the military-political factor of Eurasian integration in the form of rapprochement and the gradual merger of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
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