Political Science Issues
L.L. KHOPERSKAYA Doctor of political sciences, Professor at the Chair of international relations, Kirgiz-Russian Slavic University, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic
NEW TACTIC OF ISLAMIC STATE IN EURASIA
The article summarizes scattered facts prooving development of a new tactic aimed at the spread of Islamic extremism in Eurasia. The radical international terrorist organization "Islamic State" (IS) currently aims not to seize new territories by armed attacks, but to overthrow the legitimate authorities of the Eurasian states. The instrument for achieving this goal is the creation of terrorist groups in different parts of the world, including Central Asia and the regions of Russia. About nine thousand immigrants from the post-Soviet countries fought in the ranks of IS. After the defeat of IS in Syria in December 2017, these "experienced" IS fighters returned to their homeland to conduct propaganda and recruit new supporters of their radical ideology.
The jist of this new tactic is simultaneous implementation of several scenarios. According to the first scenario newly recruited people, who previously have not participated in the fighting, are directed to Russia as labor migrants and together with labour migrants who are already there and local people they create “sleeping” terrorist cells and channels for the transfer of their members for the participation in the future combat operations on the side of the international terrorist organizations. According to the second scenario extremist cells are created directly in the Central Asian states in order to change the political structure and foreign policy of these countries. Third, some of the migrants deported from Russia for law violations are sent to militant bases in Afghanistan, where they receive special training and subsequently become the core of various extremist organizations.
The new IS tactic is a complex threat to regional security, the best counteraction to which is a growing Eurasian integration in all possible areas, including coordination of law enforcement and security agencies, harmonization of the legal framework, intensification of interaction between civil society institutions, religious, educational and humanitarian organizations.
Key words: "Islamic State," international terrorist organization, Eurasia, new IS tactics, labor migration, terrorist acts, Eurasian integration.
After its defeat in December 2017, the radical terrorist group Islamic State (IS), banned in Russia and many other countries, changed its tactics. Now it is not to seize new territories by armed attacks, but to create terrorist groups in different parts of the world, including the Central Asian states and various regions of Russia. "The leaders are teaching their current and future supporters that neither the death of Caliph al-Baghdadi and his entourage, nor the surrender of the Caliphate capitals and territories is a sign of defeat and, therefore, the reason for ending the Jihad" .
The report of the Soufan Center expert group "Outside of the Caliphate: foreign fighters and the threat of their return" alleged that around nine thousand immigrants from the former Soviet Union fought in Syria on the side of the Islamic State terrorist group, including about 3.5 thousand Russians, more than thousand citizens of Tajikistan, over a thousand Uzbeks and natives of other Central Asian states . At present, some of the fighters return to their countries. Thus, according to the FSB of Russia, in 2017, they prevented penetration of more than 17.5 thousand foreign citizens suspected of terrorist activity, blocked 11 channels for the transfer of foreign terrorist fighters from Syria to the CIS countries and stopped the activities of more than 300 structural units of terrorist and extremist organizations . Speaking at a meeting of the Council of Heads of CIS security and special services A. Bortnikov, Director of the FSB of Russia, said that a number of terrorist acts in Russia and Central Asia have been prevented and the threats of militant attacks on the diplomatic missions of our states abroad have been neutralized .
Another group of terrorists is heading to neighbouring Afghanistan.
Vice-speaker of the Parliament of Afghanistan M. A. Isildur considers this in the context of the possible accession of Afghanistan to the SCO, where Afganistan has observer status since 2012: "Currently, ISIS militants are moving from Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan, which is a direct threat to the countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus and China. We believe that this is a strategic plan created by the world powers" .
Thinking about the IS threat to Russia and other Eurasian states, it should be borne in mind that the origins of this threat are based on the principle of financial and organizational support by the US of the radical Islamist groups in Afghanistan and the Middle East as an instrument of overthrowing unwanted regimes. The Taliban was the first such project, which Z. Brzezinski frankly called a wonderful idea of the CIA: "What is more important for the world history? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet Empire?" . It was followed by "al-Qaeda", designed to maintain a controlled conflict after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, currently this role is assigned to the Islamic State.
Experts and diplomats believe that in Afghanistan, which is historically close to the peoples of the Central Asian region in religious, linguistic and cultural terms, ISIS 2.0 matures . Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned at a meeting of the UN Security Council in January 2018: "The North of Afghanistan is turning into a base of international terrorism led by the Afghan wing of ISIS, which forms a springboard for the implementation of destructive plans in the region in the spirit of the notorious ideology of the "Caliphate." With the explicit connivance, and sometimes direct support of external and local sponsors, thousands of militants of various nationalities, including jihadists who have not been killed in Syria, are flocking under the ISIS “banners.” They openly proclaim as their goal the overthrow of the legitimate authorities of the Central Asian states and the spread of their influence on the entire Eurasian space" .
Thus, at present, the migration of the radical Islamists defeated in Syria and Iraq to the post-Soviet countries, "the spread of terrorism, radical extremism and smuggling of weapons and drugs throughout the post-Soviet space" have become a serious threat to the national and collective security of the Eurasian states.
The new tactic is that "experienced" IS fighters return to their localities, where they conduct propaganda aimed at recruiting new supporters of radical ideology using various methods, including media resources, especially messengers, such as WhatsApp, Viber and Skype. For example, "activities of IS members who arrived in Moscow from Novy Urengoy were coordinated from Syria via Telegram messenger" .
Next, several scenarios of the spread of Islamist ideology are carried out in parallel.
First scenario: newly recruited people, who have not previously participated in the fighting, are transferred to Russia as labor migrants and together with labour migrants who are already there and local people they create underground extremist cells that are preparing terrorist attacks in their places of temporary residence.
S. Olimova, Deputy Director of the Shark Center, claims, based on the results of the study "Islam and labor migration," that the threat of radicalization of migrants is exaggerated. She cites the following data: about 1% of Tajik migrants in the poll said they support the use of weapons to protect Islam, 3% pointed out that self-explosion in order to protect Islam can be justified .
On our part, we consider these figures alarming. To confirm our position, we provide information posted in 2018 on the websites of the FSB Public Relations Center, National Anti-terrorist Committee, the General Prosecutor's Office, Rossiyskaya Gazeta and the Russia Today news agency .
01.01.2018 – a terrorist act with the use an explosive device was prevented in the Krasnodar region. Terrorists planned to arrange an explosion during the New Year's holidays. The perpetrator of the terrorist attack was an accomplice of the banned in Russia international terrorist organization "Jabhat al-Nusra”;
01.02.2018 – the activities of a member of the international terrorist organization "Islamic state" who was preparing to commit a sabotage and terrorist act in Nizhny Novgorod were stopped. The terrorist, citizen of one of the neighboring countries, was ready to carry out a diversionary and terrorist act on the President of Russia election day;
09.02.2018 – a native of Tajikistan Umar Tambiev, recruited by the terrorist organization "Islamic state" for the preparation of the terrorist attack in Novosibirsk, received through the messenger instructions on the manufacture of bombs and even managed to make two test explosions in the country;
10.02.2018 – two bandits involved in terrorist activities were blocked in the Nazran region of the Republic of Ingushetia. In the course of a brief battle, both criminals were neutralized. One of them was in the Federal Wanted List in connection with his participation in the military operations on the part of IS;
15.02.2018 – a group preparing an explosion in the shopping and entertainment center was detained in Krasnodar;
18.02.2018 – during the celebration of Maslenitsa there was a terrorist attack in Kizlyar. Four people were killed and five wounded. The terrorist organization Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack. Before the attack, the "Kizlyar" shooter recorded a video in which he urged supporters to make attacks around the world;
22.02.2018 – a native of the Central Asian region was detained in St. Petersburg on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts planned to take place at the transport infrastructure and in crowded places;
06.03.2018 – five supporters of the "Islamic state" involved in the recruitment of radical residents of the Republic and their transfer to Syria were detained in Dagestan. The cell was headed by a citizen of Kazakhstan. During the detention, explosives, firearms and ammunition were seized in the homes of ISIS supporters, that were planned to be used for terrorist crimes in the North Caucasus Federal district;
11.03.2018 – a terrorist attack planned by members of a clandestine terrorist cell in a shopping center was prevented in Saratov;
13.03.2018 – the activities of an ethnic criminal group that organized a channel for illegal transportation of IS supporters to Syria and Iraq to participate in hostilities, as well as illegal legalization of migrants from the Central Asian region in Russia were stopped in Moscow. As a result of the special operation, 60 foreign citizens were detained;
14.03.2018 – employees of the FSB of Russia in Bashkortostan prevented an attempt to prepare two residents of the region, members of the right-wing radical group, for terrorist acts at Ufa polling stations;
15.03.2018 – four members of the "sleeping cell" Islamists, residents of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous district, led by the emissary of the IG, trained in the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic who arrived from the conflict zone for the organization of terrorist activities were detained in the Kaluga region;
20.03.2018 – a resident of the Tver region, included in the international wanted list and hiding in the territory of the Republic of Afghanistan, was detained for financing terrorist activities and recruiting recruits for the participation in hostilities on the side of the banned international organizations;
29.03.2018 the activities of religious extremist cell, which through the Internet maintained contact with members of the international terrorist organization "Islamic state" in Syria, were suppressed in the Krasnodar region;
17.04.2018 – the activities of the secret cell of is supporters who planned to commit resonant terrorist acts in the Rostov region with the use of firearms and improvised explosive devices were revealed and suppressed;
19.04.2018 – recruiters of terrorists were arrested in Krasnodar, explosives have been seized during the detention of the suspects;
21.04.2018 – the criminal activity of an IG supporter, who planned to carry out resonant terrorist attacks using firearms and improvised explosive devices, was suppressed in Stavropol. The objects of terrorist attacks were to become the building of the government of the Stavropol territory and the territorial security authority;
24.04.2018 – the activities of the international terrorist organization "Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami" (banned in Russia) have been stopped in Tatarstan, Omsk and Ulyanovsk regions. 14 people who recruited Muslims to participate in the fighting in the Middle East and Afghanistan-Pakistan zone were detained;
21-24.04.2018 – 11 members of the gang, IG supporters were eliminated in Derbent, they planned to commit a sabotage and terrorist acts during the May day holidays;
27.04.2018 – the activity of an ISIS "sleeping cells" was suppressed in Moscow. During the special operation, four people were detained who arrived in Moscow from Novy Urengoy (YANAO) to carry out a series of terrorist attacks in the Moscow region. A similar operation conducted in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous district, where they found a base for training terrorists;
04.05.2018 – five members of the IS cell, who planned to commit terrorist acts in the territory of a number of subjects of the Russian Federation, were detained in Yaroslavl. Coordination of the preparation for the terrorist acts was carried out through closed communities of the Telegram messenger, including from abroad;
04.05.2018 – during an attempted detention two leaders of the extremist religious cell planning terrorist acts have been neutralized in Nevinnomyssk. They rendered armed resistance;
09.05.2018 – "Islamic state" has claimed responsibility for the undermining of Ziarat at the tomb of Dagestan of Sheikh said-Afandi of Chirkey committed in the village of Chirkey, Buinaksk district of the Republic;
16.05.2018 – a criminal case was investigated against a group of persons who organized a cell (Jamaat) of ISIS in Moscow. Four citizens of Russia, Tajikistan and Moldova carried out the recruitment of citizens for participation in hostilities in the Syrian Arab Republic and planned to commit a terrorist act in places of mass congestion of people on the territory of the Moscow region on the Day of national unity, November, 4, 2016;
19.05.2018 – IS took responsibility for the attack on the Orthodox Church in Grozny, during which three people were killed. The group of terrorists was destroyed quickly by the arrived forces of ROS guard;
03.06.2018 – gang leader, who rendered armed resistance, was neutralized in Tsumadinsky district of Dagestan;
08.06.2018 – two bandits intending to commit a terrorist crime have been neutralized in Nazran. The head of Ingushetia Yunus-Bek Evkurov said that the destroyed in Nazran group of militants planned a terrorist attack on the eve of Eid al-Fitr;
01.08.2018 – nine members of a clandestine radical cell connected with the terrorist group " Islamic state” were detained in Kaliningrad;
22.08.2018 – a group of criminals who recruited new IG supporters and sent them to the Middle East to participate in hostilities, as well as participated in the financing of terrorism and publicly called for extremist activities has been detained in Norilsk. The organizers of the cell planned to join similar groups in Syria and Afghanistan;
23.08.2018 – the Moscow court arrested in absentia a native of Kyrgyzstan Sirozhiddin Mukhtarov accused of 12 episodes of terrorist orientation, he is the alleged organizer of the terrorist attack in the subway of St. Petersburg. At the moment, his whereabouts are unknown;
01.09.2018 – as a part of the counter-terrorist operation in the Khasavyurt district of Dagestan, a member of the criminal underground, who is in Federal search, was found. On the demand of law enforcement officers to lay down his arms and surrender to the authorities, he opened fire with automatic weapons;
10.09.2018 – an IS member was detained in the Smolensk region. On the instructions of the security Service of Ukraine and the leaders of the "Right sector" (an organization banned in Russia) he planned murder of one of the militia leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic;
11.10.2018 – the leader of the Russian wing and leaders of the regional structure of the international terrorist organization "Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami" were detained in the Republic of Tatarstan. The detainees coordinated anti-constitutional activities based on the doctrine of the creation of a theocratic unitary state, the so-called "world Caliphate," and aimed at overthrowing the legitimate government, including by terrorist methods. In addition to the involvement of Muslims in the ranks of "Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami" they conducted purposeful work on the creation in the territory of Russia of a network of closed structures and fulfilled the task of replenishing the militants of the terrorist organizations operating in the territory of the Middle East countries;
26.10.2018 – the illegal activities of six members of the organized, deeply conspiratorial cell of the international terrorist organization "Islamic State" have been stopped in the territory of the Moscow region. This terrorist cell was guided by emissaries in the Syrian Arab Republic, of the Central Asian origin. The detained persons planned to commit resonant terrorist attacks in Moscow with the use of both firearms and improvised explosive devices;
30.10.2018 – the activity of the conspiratorial terrorist cell is stopped in the Republic of Tatarstan. The activities of the cell were coordinated from abroad by leaders of the international terrorist organization "Islamic State". Members of the group intended to commit a number of resonant acts in the territory of the Russian Federation and then join the militants in Syria;
15.11.2018 – the activities of an organized group of persons involved in the collection of funds and the provision of financial services in the interests of the international terrorist organization "Islamic state"have been stopped in the Tomsk region. Members of the group in private chats of Telegram messenger placed details of bank cards and payment services to make transfers to militants fighting as part of the IG in Syria;
29.11.2018 – the activity of members of the religious extremist cell, planning the murder of law enforcement officers and large entrepreneurs of the KBR, was stopped in May district of Kabardino-Balkar Republic;
13.12.2018 – the activities of a group of persons carrying out financial support for militants of the international terrorist organizations Islamic state and Jabhat Al-Nusra banned in Russia have been stopped in the territory of the Moscow region, the Chechen Republic, the Republic of Dagestan and the Republic of Ingushetia. For the period from 2016 more than 38 million rubles has been transferred to finance terrorism. During the searches, a significant number of bank cards involved in the financing of terrorism, extremist literature, instructions for the purchase of capital equipment and phone SIM cards have been found and seized;
19.12.2018 – a set of measures have been implemented in Stavropol to suppress the activities of members of the international terrorist organization "Islamic State". During the attempted arrest, the bandits had rendered armed resistance to the special forces of the FSB of Russia.
Russian law enforcement agencies pay special attention to the implementation of this scenario in the most "problematic" Federal districts, to the territory of which the activity of international terrorist organizations is being transferred, in particular, the North Caucasus and Siberian Federal districts.
On October 9, 2018, in Makhachkala, the Chairman of the National anti-terrorist Committee, Director of the FSB, A.V. Bortnikov said that in 2018 six terrorist acts were prevented in the North Caucausian Federal Distric, 63 bandits and 142 accomplices were detained, 50 militants have been destroyed, including leaders of the gangs operating in the Chechen Republic and the Republic of Dagestan . The activities of 37 terrorist cells that planned to organize terrorist attacks in the territory of the Republics of Dagestan, Ingushetia, the Chechen Republic and the Stavropol territory were stopped. On October 24, at a meeting on security issues in the Siberian Federal district, he said that the level of terrorist activity in the SFD is growing (56 criminal cases related to terrorism were opened in Siberia in the first nine months of 2018), including the fact that there are more migrant workers from Central Asia and the Caucasus in the region."The incoming information indicates that the objects located in the subjects of the Federation of the District attract the attention of international terrorist and extremist organizations .
In his speech, Chairman of the NAC, Director of the FSB of Russia Vladimir Bortnikov said at a joint meeting of the NAC and the Federal operative Service (FOS) on December 11, 2018 that the situation in the Russian Federation in the field of counter-terrorism remains difficult, but controlled by law enforcement agencies. In the course of counter-terrorist operations and certain operational and combat activities, 65 militants were neutralized, including 10 leaders of the gang groups; 36 leaders, 236 bandits and 589 accomplices were detained. The Interior Ministry and the Border Service of the FSB of Russia have closed the entry for more than 10 thousand persons suspected of involvement in the terrorist and extremist activities, as well as prevented the departure of more than 60 Russian and foreign citizens to the zone of armed conflicts in the Middle East .
Second scenario: extremist cells are created directly in the territories of the Central Asian states (primarily in Tajikistan, bordering Afghanistan) in order to change the political structure and foreign policy of these countries. This scenario has been used since 2014.
One of the most high-profile incidents related to the IS was the defection of Colonel G. Khalimov, former commander of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan, to the ranks of this international criminal organization in April 2015. On May 27, in a video message distributed via the Internet, he said that he joined the Islamic State group for ideological reasons and promised to return to Tajikistan to "fight for the rights of Muslims and establish Sharia law there," he called to "join the Jihad" against those who put pressure on Islam . On the same day, the Council of ulama of the Islamic center of Tajikistan adopted a fatwa according to which the Islamic State group was declared "Haram" and participation in Jihad in the ranks of the IS was declared a great sin . On May 28, 2015, a criminal case was initiated against the ex- OMON commander under three articles of the Criminal Code: treason, participation in the criminal community and illegal participation in armed conflicts or military operations in the territory of other states . Information that Halimov died on September 8, 2017 during the raid of the Russian aerospace forces in the Deir ez-Zor area was denied in September 2018, when he again made radical appeals .
In 2017, 36 attempts to commit terrorist acts were prevented in Tajikistan, 392 citizens were detained for connections with terrorist organizations . Minister of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan R. Rahimzoda said at his press conference on February 8, 2018, "in 2017, with the help of Tajikistan, five terrorist attacks were prevented in Russia, one in China, two in Uzbekistan and one each in Ukraine and Kazakhstan" .
In Kazakhstan, "since 2014, 30 terrorist acts were prevented and foiled at the early stages of preparation (in 2014 three in 2015, four in 2016 and 12 in 2017 – 11)" . On June 25, 2018, eight people were detained in Kazakhstan's Uralsk on suspicion of preparing terrorist attacks in the country .
Director of the Antiterrorist center, Deputy Chairman of the GKNB of the Kyrgyz Republic, Kozhobekov said in June 2018 that "since the beginning of the year, 11 terrorist fighters have been detained in the Kyrgyz Republic, they were sent to the Republic with a "task", and 4 terrorist acts have been prevented" , but already on August 24, 2018 this list was replenished after the detention of two Kyrgyz citizens suspected of involvement in the extremist organization "Hizb ut-Tahrir," banned in the territory of the Republic .
Probably, it is necessary to agree with opinion of the publicist N. Starikov, who believes that the "Central Asian spring" begins with the support of the United States, involving "color revolutions", armed coups and physical elimination of the leaders of Central Asian states . One of the scenarios under consideration is the resumption of the civil war in Tajikistan and destruction of the state, we will add, with the help of the IS.
Here are the facts of recent months. In February 2018, an underground terrorist cell of the banned Islamic Renaissance Party was neutralized in Tajikistan. fourteen people who planned to commit major terrorist attacks during the celebration of Navruz were detained. In addition, an attack on the 201st Russian military base in Dushanbe was developed . In August 2018, a car hit a group of foreign tourists, which the General Prosecutor’s Office of Tajikistan qualified as a terrorist attack committed to destabilize the situation in the country . In September 2018, in the Farkhor district in the South of Tajikistan, a member of a terrorist group was detained. He intended to blow up the building of the local police. He planned to carry out the explosion on September 9 during the celebrations of the anniversary of the country's independence .
Third scenario: some of the migrants deported from Russia for law violations are transferred to the militant bases in Afghanistan. This scenario is described in detail in the articles by D. Turovsky and A. Titov, as well as in the report on the results of the study on the causes and motives of labor migrants from Central Asia in the Russian Federation .
The purpose of all scenarios is to create a new model of terrorism, which experts call "2.0". It is based on the use of "pendulum" migration of radical Islamists to the countries of Central Asia and Russia to become the core of various extremist organizations.
Fundamentally important is the combination of "experienced" militants, including those who repent and do not have a criminal past and new IS activists. In 2015, Tajikistan has adopted amendments to the Criminal Code that enable the authorities to exempt from criminal liability persons who voluntarily renounced "illegal participation in an armed formation, armed conflict or military operations in the territory of other states until the cessation of the activities of the armed formation, an end of the armed conflict or military action", unless their actions contain signs of a different crime (art. 401 of the Criminal Code of Tajikistan).
According to K. Nazarzod, Head of the Sughd regional police department, 72 residents of the Sughd region who returned home and repented of their deeds were pardoned under the above article. However, 34 of them subsequently returned to Syria and other hot spots. There are also cases when the "repentant" engaged in the recruitment of IS militants in other countries .
At the international conference "Peace processes, security cooperation and regional interaction" held in Tashkent on March 27, 2018, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov once again stressed: "Central Asia occupies a special place among our foreign policy priorities. Of particular concern is the growing penetration of the so-called Islamic State primarily in the Northern provinces bordering the CIS countries. Strong points are being created there where migrants from Central Asia, Russia and other countries are being trained. We see this as a direct threat to the regional and international security. All of this urgently requires greater efforts to address common threats to all of us" .
The carried out analysis shows that the new tactics of the Islamic State is a complex threat to regional security, the best counteraction to which is a stronger Eurasian integration in all possible directions, including coordination of the activities of law enforcement agencies and power structures, harmonization of the legal framework, intensification of interaction among civil society institutions, religious, educational and humanitarian organizations of all interested states.
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