Medvedev N.P., Slizovsky D.E. Review of the Article by Pyzh V.V. and Frolov A.E. "Political Security of the State and Political Stability of Society as an Object of Political Analysis"
Review of the article by Pyzh V.V. and Frolov A.E. "Political security of the state and political stability of society as an object of political analysis"
Reviewers:
N.P. Medvedev Doctor of Sciences (political sciences), Professor, Peoples ' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia
D.E. Slizovsky Doctor of Sciences (history), Professor at the Chair of Russian history, Peoples ' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia
The political security of the state and the political stability of society are interrelated problems, the scale of which both in the international space and within the borders of individual countries have acquired a global character and all agree with this. But no matter how formidable this problem may seem, and no matter how much effort is spent on its solution, the problem remains difficult to solve and equally difficult to understand. One can only lament about this when even the international interdisciplinary encyclopaedic dictionary "Globalistica" offers to work not only with the concept of "security", including in its content six semantic elements-characteristics. But it also gives definitions of 24 types of security, from military, global, collective, international, local, demographic to personal You can get acquainted here with the concept of "political security", which clearly reveals the idea of protecting the political system of society from external and internal threats. And the definition is also filled with meanings and the ensuing actions to ensure sustainable political sovereignty in the system of international relations. And maintaining political stability while taking into account and ensuring the balance of interests of the individual, society and the state.
We must admit that in the Russian and international scientific-expert and media space, there is a noticeable activity aimed at inclusion into the public discourse of the topics related to global, regional, information and personal security. The degree of interest in this topic, the scale of its influence on the minds, behavior and decisions at the level of governments, blocks of states and international think tanks say the materials of the traditional conferences on security in Munich (German). The last of such conferences was held in February 2018 in the atmosphere of discussion of the report "To the Brink – and Back."
In any case, the way to ensure political security and stability begins with the study of the problem and then the development of solutions. In this perspective and from this angle, we can evaluate the article "Political security of the state and political stability of society as an object of political analysis" by prof. V. V. Pyzh and Assistant Professor A. E. Frolova and recommend it for publication. The authors of the article know too well that this topic has long been one of the most popular and topical in the scientific political science community. From our point of view, the appearance of this article is a continuation of the study and a proposal for further study of this popular and interesting topic. And there can be no doubt that this is an topical issue from the scientific and theoretical and practical and applied points of view, the solution of which is not only difficult on various grounds, but also complicated and even aggravated. The degree of knowledge and understanding of this issue is equally questionable. That is why this work may be interesting, especially if it contains an innovative, fresh look, approach or research method .
The scientific intrigue of this publication is that its authors tried to find their own, author's approach, combining the coverage of the topic with the analysis of facts and event-verbal material on the example of the security phenomenon and its interpretation, and in specific forms of development of ideas about security, which have qualitative distinctive features in the form of "political security of the state and political stability of society."
It may be justified when researchers, solving the problem of understanding the truth, comparing images and concepts with the reality itself, by understanding the meanings of the terminological apparatus, pay their attention and attention of the readers to a narrow and broad interpretation of these very concepts and a whole cohort of other concepts, united by one sense and one idea – security. The authors of the article clearly stated their approach and presented data on the history of the emergence of terms with the indigenous content of "security", their interpretation from the standpoint of different scientific, ideological and methodological positions, such as American scientific and state, and Soviet scientific schools.
It is impossible to tell unambiguously whether the analysis of the problem under consideration has won or lost a lot (won more!!!), when the authors of the article referred to the citation of the concept of "national security " from the Soviet encyclopedia: "the term "national security" was introduced by bourgeois ideologists who tried to pass off the interests of the exploitative class protected by the bourgeois state as national ones and thus obscure the true nature and orientation of their activities in the field of state security."
Many of us remember what an integral impression the criticism of bourgeois ideologems had to make. Then this line of scientific analysis was rejected. But now you can expect to find in them a concise and strong flow of organically developing and accurately describe thoughts. The idea that attracts and allows, if it is used correctly, to understand that the problem of national security is the problem of who and whose interests it protects and represents. And what set of goals, objectives, principles and political measures is used in the interests of that very "national security". Here, in this area of scientific research, we always obstacles made from ideological and class views. But if the conditions of imperialism, the dominance of global structures and actors in the international affairs and relations are not perfect, it may be that previously not very strong side of the analysis, taken in modern conditions, may now be turned into a methodological tool of great effect. Outside of this approach, it only seemed that everything was clear and understandable. Here, the concepts of political security and political stability do not just become close in content. But "political stability is based on the relative agreement of the main social and political forces on the goals and methods of social development, the solution of emerging contradictions without civil conflicts and wars, which is a condition and factor of ensuring the political security of the state."
At first glance, it may seem that we are dealing with the return in full of the values of the analysis of political realities on the basis of the interests of the main actors and materialistic foundations in the formation of consciousness. But no, the authors of the article are cautious in their views and tend not to be so decisive, allowing such terms as "relativity of consent" for a variety of reasons. But why the conditions for ensuring/not ensuring the political security of the state cannot be disagreement, or relative consent, but only the rupture of any unjustified consent, or rejection of agreement on already agreed acts and agreements. This, for example, is evidenced by the Minsk agreements of February 2015, agreed at the summit in Minsk by the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia in the format of the "Normandy four" and signed by the contact group, which remain unfulfilled.
The main properties of the author's understanding of the given topic have an effect on the coverage of relations and subordination in the interpretation of the concept of "national security." Such approach caused various moods. But there is something that testifies to the expansion of the content of this concept to uncertain meanings. And further on, on the inclusion in it of the political security and political stability: "Political security and political stability are the main link and the basis of national security." The authors do not ignore the fact that national security is broader in its meaning than political security. But is it so? Probably, the terms should be defined on the contrary, considering political security a wider term, defining the meaning of the concept of "national security". The views and opinions of the authors on the correlation of meanings and meanings of these definitions, the approach and style that they use, in our opinion, cannot be considered quite accurate to reflect the realities of both phenomena. The flexibility of phenomena and events, processes and relations is very high today. And this brings us to the conclusion that political stability can be a key and dominant factor of the national and state security. In short, the practical effect of those and other factors is quite different. Involuntarily the thought is born that, maybe, it’s not important what safety plays a leading and what a subordinate and dependent role. It’s the question about whose ideas accompany and ensure security and stability. Do they belong to the people expressing the national spirit and whether they are supported by the policy of this substance?
We have noted the bright and shady sides of the presented topic, and of the very familiar problem not to detract from their importance, for those who research and will explore the modern political process, security and stability of the political and state levels. This article will take its place even in the literature not so poor on a given topic. But the main thing is that it seems to us that the direction and the approach presented by the authors of this article will be recognized and supported. One thing is clear, the further, the more this topic will gain importance and interest. And even more important will be the resuscitated and reformatted methods and directions of its research.
Irkhin Yu.V. Review of the Article by Rodionova M. E. "Features of the Presidential Campaign in France: Results And Prospects"
Review of the article by RODIONOVA M.E. "FEATURES OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN FRANCE: RESULTS AND PROSPECTS»
Reviewer:
Y.V. Irkhin Doctor of Sciences (philosophy), Professor, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Professor, Russian State Humanitarian University Moscow, Russia
The article by Rodionova M. E. presented for review examines at a good theoretical and methodological level the current problems of analysis of the recent presidential elections in France. The volume of the article is 9 pages, font 14. The article is presented in the correct format in accordance with the recommendations of the HAC and the requirements of the journal Issues of politology. The article has a clear logical structure: actuality, substantiation of the problem, research tasks, conclusions, bibliography (the article has a table on the positions of the parties in the elections, the number of voters, etc.).
Actuality. The article is devoted to the character, course (process) and results of the elections of the President of France, one of the leading countries of the European Union and the world. The article is relevant both from the point of view of the analysis of innovations in the presidential election campaign in France, and from the point of view of its consideration of not only short-term, but also long-term results that are supposed to have an impact on the coming years. Especially important are the consequences of the elections for the subsequent improvement of relations between France and Russia, the establishment of good, including personal relations between E. Macron and V.V. Putin, who has also been recently elected President.
Novelty. This is one of the first articles that provides a comprehensive analysis of the new phenomena that have emerged in recent years in the EU and France, and have had a significant impact on the results and features of the presidential elections in France. In addition, the article describes in detail some of E. Macron’s methods and novelties that can be used in the Russian context.
Approaches, methods and style. It should be noted that the article is not only scientifical and innovative, but simply interesting, which is important for the expansion of the audience of the Journal.
So, after setting the tasks, etc., the main text of the article begins with an interesting brief historical and analytical excursion into the relations between Russia and France, as well as the analysis of the official visit of the Russian President to France, after the election of President E. Macron, timed to the 300th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and France and the visit of Peter I to Paris and Versailles (Macron and Putin also met in Paris and Versailles) in May 2017, as well as the results of the official visit of French President E. Macron to Russia and his work at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
In her analysis, the author correctly assumes that the political picture of the world has changed in recent years ("new political and economic reality"): the world has become multipolar, the consequences of the global crisis of 2008/2009 are not overcome, the role of Russia has increased, obvious crisis phenomena in the development of the European Union (migration, low rates of economic development, large external debts, falling incomes, the contradictions between the policies of Brussels and national States, the increasing role of neotraditionalism, neoconservatism, neo-modernist values, national movements, etc.).
All of the above, reflected and expressed in the genesis of French politics, is duly reflected in the article.
The article comprehensively examines the positions of all political forces in France before and during the elections, analyzes the programs of candidates, shows the dynamics of the changing balance of forces between them, their ratings, and considers all the main reasons that led to the results of the elections, so important for France and Europeand for the subsequent changes in the French politics.
The article is written by a sociologist, so it pays fairly much attention to the analysis of public opinion trends and ratings of the candidates.
The article thoroughly consideres achievements and mistakes of Marie Le Pen, who led the National Front and took second place in the first and second rounds of voting in the presidential campaign.
Much attention is paid to the consideration of new political technologies (including the use of holograms) and features of political leadership of E. Macron, who played a crucial role in achieving the goals.
We agree with the author's conclusion that in general the electoral campaign in France reflected a similar socio-political and ideological division that manifested itself in the UK Brexit referendum and in the US elections of President Donald Trump. The results of the elections in France also led to a certain change or transformation of some foreign policy discourses.
So: the author managed to correctly put and innovatively consider important problems of the French and European policy in a considerably small article. The article will certainly be useful and interesting for the readers of the Journal. Given that Rodionova is leading a large-scale EU project on the new electoral practices in Europe and Russia, it may be useful to think about attracting well-known project participants, including foreign authors for cooperation in the Journal. (See: Electoral processes in Russia and Europe: new practices, institutions and technologies; under the General editorship of M.E. Rodionova, S.Y. Belokonev, P.S. Seleznev, D.A. Yezhov. – Moscow: KnoRus, 2018. – 344 с.).
CHERNYAVSKIY S.I., MEHDIYEV E.T. Southern Gas Corridor in EU Energy Policy
S.I. CHERNYAVSKIY Doctor of Sciences (historical sciences), Director of the Center for Post-Soviet studies, Institute of international studies, Professor of the Chair of world political processes of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, MFA of Russia, Moscow, Russia
E.T. MEHDIYEV Candidate of Sciences (historical sciences), researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet studies, Institute of international studies (IMI), Moscow State Institute of International Relations, MFA of Russia, Moscow, Russia
SOUTHERN GAS CORRIDOR IN EU ENERGY POLICY
The article is devoted to the transportation of Caspian energy resources through gas pipelines to European markets that are being constructed now. The authors consider the potential of the southern gas corridor and its prospects in terms of ensuring the energy security of European countries in the future. The authors come to the conclusion that the value of such a corridor will grow with the development of deposits and the expansion of export infrastructure.
Key words: South Caucasus, EU, energy policy, energy security, Azerbaijan, gas routes, TANAP, TAP.
In the modern world, the energy direction in international relations acquires a new role. The EU depends on the external hydrocarbon supplies and is trying to diversify both the suppliers and the routes through which fuel is transported. The main Russian budgetary income item is the export of minerals, among which oil and natural gas occupy a leading position. Countries between the EU and Russia play an important role in establishing the "rules of the game". So, after the Ukrainian crisis, Russia has decided to exclude Ukraine from the list of the countries-intermediaries in the trade of hydrocarbons to the EU. The expansion of the North stream and the construction of the Turkish stream are projects designed to achieve this goal. At the same time, the EU, with 40% of its natural gas imports dependent on Russia, is in search of new suppliers and transporters. The deteriorating situation in Russian-European relations dictates to all parties the necessity to search for new formats of communication and restructuring of the current relationships.
Turkey's geopolitical location plays an important role in determining its foreign policy. The territory of the country connects the regions of the Middle and Front East with Europe. Turkey is a member of NATO and about thirty years it is standing in line for EU membership. The current turn in foreign and domestic policy is directly related to the ideas of President Erdogan, it implies a more independent foreign policy and restructuring of relations with the outside world that have existed over the past fifteen years. There is a serious convergence of interests and views between Russia and Turkey regarding the world order and the role of each country in a multipolar world.
The Southern Gas Corridor is a project initiated by the European Commission and aimed at diversifying both supplier countries and natural gas transportation routes into Europe. The Southern Gas Corridor project was proposed after the abolition of the Nabucco transport project. The starting point of the route is Sangachal terminal near Baku, and the end point is in Italy. The pipeline itself consists of three parts: South Caucasus, TRANS-Anatolian (TANAP) and TRANS-Adriatic (TAP) gas pipelines. This article discusses the impact of the components of the gas pipeline and the supplier countries on the energy security of the European region.
The first part of the Southern Gas Corridor is the South Caucasus gas pipeline (also called the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline). This route is used to export Azerbaijani gas from the Shah Deniz field. Deliveries to Georgia via the gas pipeline began at the end of 2006, and to Turkey in July 2007. The throughput capacity is 8 billion m3 per year. The gas pipeline is laid in close proximity to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline in order to minimize damage to the ecological environment of the region. The shares of the companies in the consortium are distributed as follows: BP (operator) - 28.8%, SOCAR (via AzSCP) – 10.0%, TPAO-19%, Petronas-15.5%, Lukoil-10%, NICO-10% and SGC Midstream-6.7%.
It is planned to increase the capacity to 20 billion m3 per year by 2020 by installing two additional compressor stations on the territory of Georgia and Turkey and building a second line in parallel with the existing pipeline. The final investment decision for the Expanded South Caucasus gas pipeline was signed on December 17, 2013 simultaneously with the decision to develop the second phase of the Shah Deniz field.
It should be noted that in the scientific literature there is often confusion in the discussion of the South Caucasus gas pipeline. Thus, the initial project of the gas pipeline and its extended project are often presented as a whole, whereas initially, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline was designed to transport gas from the Shah Deniz field to the final consumers in Georgia and Turkey. The beginning of the development of the Shah Deniz-2 project entailed a discussion of possible gas transportation routes in addition to the above-mentioned countries, also to South-European. As a result, with the participation of the European Commission, it was decided to build an Expanded South Caucasus gas pipeline and include it in the single route of the southern gas corridor. It is worth noting that the Expanded South Caucasus gas pipeline extends to the border of Georgia with Turkey, where it is connected to TANAP, while the original gas pipeline on the border of Georgia with Turkey is connected to the national Turkish gas pipeline network owned by BOTAS.
The second part of the Southern Gas Corridor is the TRANS-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP). The idea of the project was proposed at the 3rd Black Sea Energy and Economic Forum held in Istanbul in November 2011. A Memorandum of understanding on the construction of the gas pipeline between the governments of Azerbaijan and Turkey was signed in December 2011. The construction of the 1850-kilometer pipeline began in March of 2015. Initially, the design capacity of the pipeline is 16 billion m3, of which ten are intended for the European market, and six – for the Turkish market. By 2026, it is planned to increase the volume of transported gas to 31 billion m3. The shares held by the companies in the project are as follows: 58% belongs to Azerbaijan SOCAR through Southern Gas Corridor Closed Joint Stock Company, Turkish BOTAS owns 30%, and BP-12%.
The third line of the Southern Gas Corridor is the TRANS-Adriatic gas pipeline (TAP) project. In 2013, a trilateral intergovernmental agreement was signed between Greece, Italy and Albania, confirming the commitment to the project. Shares held by the companies in this project are distributed as follows: BP – 20%, SOCAR – 20%, and Snam.A. – 20%, Fluxys – 19%, Enagás – 16% and Axpo – 5%.
It is worth noting the activities of the governments of the Balkan countries to support the TRANS-Adriatic pipeline. Memorandums of understanding and cooperation were signed between the governments and the development companies of the TAP and the Ionian-Adriatic gas pipelines participating countries (IAP). On 27 May 2013, the Adriatic and Ionian Initiative Council, represented by the governments of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia, signed in Brussels a Declaration of agreement on cooperation for the further development of the TAP and IAP gas pipelines. The main beneficiaries of the transit of Caspian gas along the southern gas corridor are the countries of South-Eastern Europe, for which this project is one of the most important variables in the process of diversification of natural gas suppliers to national markets.
The interest of Bulgaria in the construction of TAP is also noteworthy. In January 2014, a Memorandum of understanding and cooperation was signed between TAP and Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB) gas pipeline.
Gordon Birell, President of BP Azerbaijan, in an interview in December 2013 said that the main gas supplier for the Southern Gas Corridor is Azerbaijan and pointed to the main fields from which it is planned to extract gas: Shah Deniz-2, Shafag-Asiman and Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli-2.
The second stage of gas production from the Shah Deniz field is one of the largest projects in the world. The volume of gas contained in the field is estimated at 1 trillion. m3. Initially, it is expected to produce 16 billion m3 annually. Natural gas supply to Georgia and Turkey is expected soon. A 28.8% share in the project belongs to BP, which is also the operator of the project. 16.7% are owned by SOCAR, 15.5% – by Statoil, 10% – by Total, 10% – by Lukoil, 10% – by NICO and 9% – by TPAO. The Shah Deniz-2 project is being implemented simultaneously with the Expansion of the South Caucasus Gas Pipeline, the total amount of investments in the two projects is estimated at US$ 28 billion.
BP proved significant amount of natural gas deposits in the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli-2 field. According to SOCAR, deposits in this field are estimated at 300 billion m3. At the moment, negotiations with BP as an operator are nearing completion. The Contract of the Century concluded in 1994 did not provide for the production of gas from the deposits located under the oil reservoir in the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field.
BP also participates in the production sharing agreement on the Shafag-Asiman field. The first drilling operations are planned for 2019. According to SOCAR estimates, this field may contain up to 500 billion m3 of gas. It is assumed that the production of natural gas from the fields of Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli-2 and Shafag-Asiman will begin no earlier than 2024.
In the long term, Turkmenistan appears to be a potential supplier of fuel to fill the Southern Gas Corridor. The country has huge natural gas reserves, and its transportation is facilitated by the fact that the offshore fields are only 100 kilometers from the Azerbaijani fields. After the discovery of the Galkanysh field, the world's largest land gas field, Turkmenistan's proven gas reserves amount to 17.5 trillion m3. The level of production today is about 70 billion m3 annually, of which 40 billion m3 are exported. At the moment, the only importer of Turkmen gas is China.
Azerbaijan has clearly expressed its position on the transportation of natural gas from Turkmenistan to Europe and appears to be a reliable partner. Azerbaijan is ready to act as a transit country on the way of Turkmen and Kazakh gas to Turkey and Europe. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan may also act as short-term gas suppliers to fill the pipeline until the pipeline is filled with Azerbaijani "new wave" gas at the end of the 2020s.
However, today there remains one important issue. The status of the Caspian Sea has not yet been resolved. According to the representatives of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, the TRANS-Caspian pipeline projects should be considered only by the countries concerned, whereas Russia and Iran, on the contrary, offer a different view of the problem. In their opinion, the TRANS-Caspian pipelines are projects that affect common interests of all countries, respectively, they should be adopted jointly. In this case, the three countries have no choice but to convince Russia that the scale of natural gas exported from the greater Caspian basin is insignificant and does not affect Russia's interests in the European energy market.
The Southern Gas Corridor is presented as one of the longest pipelines existing at the moment. The total length of all three threads, from Sangachal terminal to Italy, is about 3500 km. The main companies involved in the project are BP, SOCAR and BOTAS. The project is on the list of projects of common interest in the EU, which makes it easier for the management companies to receive funding and political support in various circles. The implementation of this project will allow Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to export natural gas to Turkey and Europe. At the same time, the geopolitical importance of this project and Russia's interests in the region and in the EU energy market cannot be written off. As noted by John Roberts, the Southern Gas Corridor is now perceived as a modern Silk Road that unites countries and people from different regions and establishes an adequate framework for increasing trade, scientific and technological exchange.
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MUROVIH A.I., NIKITENKO E.G. The Point of Bifurcation for the World Community and Russia
A.I. MUROVIH Doctor of Sciences (economics), Professor at the Chair of public administration and national security of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
E.G. NIKITENKO Major General, Candidate of Sciences (history), Professor at the Chair of public administration and national security of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
THE POINT OF BIFURCATION FOR THE WORLD COMMUNITY AND RUSSIA
The article deals with the root causes of unprecedented Russophobia and "demonization" of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the West. The article substantiats objective necessity of V. Putin's election to the post of the President of the Russian Federation for the purpose of evolutionary development of Russia and the world community. A fundamentally new network approach to the development of the model of the future of Russia is proposed.
Key words: Russia, President, elections, USA, Russophobia, threats, national interests, model of the future.
What explains the hysterical unprecedented Russophobia and demonization of V. Putin in the West, raging to such an extent that the cold war is about to turn into a hot one? Recently, the Western media, lined-up by the dollar even more evenly than the CPSU Central Committee lined-up the Soviet media, direct all its propaganda power to the demonization of the President of Russia. The loss by Ukraine of its territorial integrity and the alleged interference of Russian hackers in the US presidential election are explanations for the political kindergarten. The West led by the United States did not care about the loss of territorial integrity by Yugoslavia, Cyprus, USSR, Libya or Syria. Is there at least one person on the planet with an adequate mentality who believes that in Ukraine the United States does not pursue its own interests, but cares about the welfare of the people of Ukraine and the preservation of its integrity? The US is interested to use Ukraine as a tool in the fight against Russia to the last Ukrainian soldier. The answer to this question is of fundamental importance.
Modern civilization has entered the era of global qualitative changes caused by the critical aggravation of environmental and resource problems, the global systemic crisis, the formation of a new technological structure, the transition of the world community into a non-equilibrium one in non-equilibrium bifurcation area. From the standpoint of synergetics, there is an event or chain of events at the micro level that are of extreme evolutionary importance for the macro system. The onset of such a "fateful" event is essentially the moment when the macrosystem reaches the point of bifurcation, when there is a split in the directions of qualitative restructuring of the system. In the case of the organizational system, the most important changes are in its key elements – decision-making centres, especially at the highest hierarchical level. Synergetic approach allows to consider the role of personality in history in a new way.
Some forces are trying to finally arrange the modern world order in accordance with the Pro-American model of the consumer society in the unipolar dimension. The general goal of the consumer economy is to maximize profits and, as a consequence, the cult of money becomes the dominant value. The institution of Western democracy is blurred to the ground by the mechanism of lobbying (corruption) and in reality reflects the interests of corporate structures and, above all, the financial oligarchy. The power of money strengthenes, human relations are being commercialized, traditional values are being leveled, and the essence of liberal values is being emasculated. Very revealing conclusions about the resuscitation of "hereditary capitalism" with the oligarchic caste structure of society are contained in the book of Professor Thomas Piketty of the Paris School of Economics "Capital in the XXI century." Global leadership (dictate) of the United States, that is ignoring the interests of sovereign countries, is the best answer to this trend. Ideologists of American hegemony begin to understand that it is possible to maintain global leadership only if countries in the world externally have a democratic appearance but are governed by authoritarian methods.
The US is vitally interested to preserve the US dollar as the world reserve currency and to control the global financial system. The unilateral emission of the world currency, which is not confirmed by any real economic values, and its super-profitable exports have contributed to the prosperity of American society. In the last decade, the total US debt has reached an astronomical value, comparable to world GDP. Americans make up 6% of the world's population and consume about a third of the world's resources. Petrodollars are the Achilles ' heel of the American financial system. China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela and a number of other countries are heading for trade settlements in national currencies. The "oil (gas) – yuan – gold" scheme is already working, when, having sold the energy resource for yuan, you can be immediately convert them into gold on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange. Even Saudi Arabia is examining this trade mechanism. The de-dollarization of the global financial system poses a critical threat to US economic and national security.
The manic desire to impose American global leadership on the world community shows that the United States is beginning to lose its leading position in the world. The US dollar empire is collapsing and the US power elite is beginning to lose their nerves. It is the fear of losing control over the global financial system based on the dominance of the unsecured American currency and allowing the U.S. to carry out non-equivalent economic exchange with third world countries that determines the psychological background of the formation of modern US international policy. This fear intensifies as there are more and more clear signs of the destruction of the neocolonial financial system, which will lead to a sharp drop in the standard of living of the American population, then to a social explosion and "lustration" of the military and political elite of the United States. Therefore, ensuring the global dominance of the United States is not so much a destiny from above, as a matter of life and death for the American ruling elite, and for the world financial oligarchy, based on the unprecedented military potential of the United States. All the aggressive power of the country will be aimed at preserving and strengthening the hegemony of the United States. The new US President Donald Trump, who does not fully represent the interests of the world financial oligarchy, will be left for a time for a "single" use in case of an emergency of a military or economic character. The growing confrontation between the interests of the international financial oligarchy and the national interests of sovereign countries is becoming increasingly evident.
The self-proclaimed exclusive purpose of the supposedly God-chosen nation raises the national interests of the United States to a special level of priority. In reality, this exclusivity is justified, first of all, by power, it is obvious that the United States initially falls out of the sphere of compromise cooperation in the international arena. This situation inevitably generates threats to the national interests of all sovereign countries of the world, it has generated and constantly strengthens the main international contradiction in the modern world. In the interests of the United States is the establishment of a puppet regime in any country, but even a chaotic situation in it is already considered a positive result. The most important thesis in American foreign policy is: "the US is a constant in this world of uncertainty." National elites of the countries of the world should understand where there is an island of stability, allowing them to have accounts (deposits), real estate, where to go for rest, medical treatment, or education for their children. Powerful migration flows to the EU countries, as a consequence of the American policy of "democratization" in the Middle East, politically motivated unfair competition and simply power pressure on the objectionable governments, testify to the strengthening of aggressive behavior of the world hegemon. The irresponsible behavior of the global "leader," who is losing its power, considerably increases the level of international danger up to the real threat of world war.
He United States in relations with Russia crossed the red line, supervising the organization of anti-constitutional and anti-Russian coup in Ukraine. Russia has openly and effectively defended its national interests and the interests of the Russian world. Pursuing a policy independent of the planetary leader that affects the fundamental non-public interests of the countries of the "Golden billion," Russia was the first to dare to challenge the organizers of the modern world order. The West immediately reacted to this dangerous precedent, turning Russia into a long-awaited enemy figure, that allows to consolidate the forces of the passive Western community.
Currently, Russia is one of the main initiators of alternative international policy, certainly personified by the Russian President Vladimir Putin. This policy is based on building a multi-polar world, creation of competitive centres of power, and on the consistent assertion of the primacy of the institute of international law. Russia is taking real steps to destroy the monopoly of world reserve currencies and the existing system of non-equivalent economic exchange between the countries of the Center and the so-called Periphery. A special mission of Russia is its significant participation in the formation of the world economic space and global mechanisms for the regulation of financial flows. The spiritual content of the alternative international politics is based on traditional values, including family values. Of course, there is a modern interpretation of them, which corresponds to the evolutionary criterion, according to which there is a systemic synthesis, when the modified elements of the "old" form are included in the "new" form. t would be a mistake to think that Russia is only representing the interests of the Periphery countries. We are talking about building a modern system of international relations that meets the laws of the evolutionary development of the world community, which is a necessary condition for preventing the threats to global security.
The historical path of Russia testifies to her crucial role in the protection of European and world civilization from the external threat. At the present stage, this is particularly evident in Russia's active struggle against such a universal evil as ISIS in Syria. But the evolutionary mission of Russia is predetermined, first of all, by the high cultural and moral values of the Russian society which it contributes to the universal treasury of spiritual wealth. The predominance of the spiritual principle over the material, creative, artistic attitude to life, susceptibility to public interests in contrast to the Western individualism, openness and the ability to enrich different national cultures, all this is genetically characteristic of Russian society. The above evolutionary potential of Russia is necessary for building a new information society of sustainable development, in which reasonable material self-limitation and compensatory development of intellectual and cultural needs will prevail. At the same time, Russia was and remains a country of contrasts, where along with the ugliness of Russian reality (drunkedness, poverty and exorbitant luxury, corruption, etc.) there are the highest manifestations of the human spirit, thought and will. And no "costs" of equalizing socialism or of the "animal" capitalism of the 90s could suppress the deep cultural and moral essence of Russia.
At the beginning of the XXI century, Russia is in a non-equilibrium state, the final way to the future has not yet been chosen and critical turning point has not yet been passed. The political system of Russia again "fluctuates" in the vicinity of the point of bifurcation. In the late 1990s, the self-preservation instinct permitted the revival of nationally oriented trends in the development of the country as opposed to the regime of neo-feudalism with the Pro-Western "capitalist face" of the Presidency of Boris Yeltsin. The inertial course of events continued, but the vector of changes went in a direction direction, the critical event for the future of Russia being the election of President Vladimir Putin in 2000.
The 18th year of Putin's leadership ended (for 14 years he was President of the Russian Federation and for 4 years - Chairman of the Russian Government). The main result of this cycle is not only the fact that the country overcame the "achievements" of the vague "Yeltsin’s" time, but also created subjective and objective prerequisites for the progressive development. Russia in its history has "tested" Communist and capitalist extremes with huge losses, it is necessary to find on its own evolutionary path to the future. The past years of the new Millennium can be considered a preparatory period for soluving the grandiose tasks of becoming a new Russia.
The first and most important result is the prevention of a national disaster. Achieved the main goal-self-preservation of Russia. The state vertical of power was literally built from the ashes, the unrestrained parade of sovereignties was stopped, and a creative peaceful life was established in Chechnya The President of the Russian Federation becomes the person making the most important decisions and really controlling the situation in the country. There are no mass pessimistic moods in the society, nor a sense of fatal deterioration of life or of the approach of social collapse characteristic of the 90’s.
An independent foreign policy of Russia is being formed, which is extremely transparent and predictable, does not carry aggression and is based on the principles of international law. Russia believes without any reservations that the UN is the centre of international decision-making. For 18 years, the country's defense capacity has increased significantly after almost complete destruction in the 90's. The leading position of Russia in the world energy sector has become quite clear. The significance of this fact will increase in the conditions of aggravation of the crisis of primary resources. The new Russia has convincingly declared itself in the international arena as a strong and civilized partner. A historic event happened – the reunification of Crimea and Sevastopol with Russia. The military operation of the Russian aerospace forces and the Russian peacekeeping mission in Syria have successfully completed. The political leadership and all the enormous responsibility associated with the implementation of these historical events fell on the shoulders of the President of Russia. Inevitably, there had to be tension in relations between Russia and the United States, which are not inclined to search for compromises and are gradually slipping to the primordial-power methods of solving international problems. Objectively in demand in world politics forces that can restrain the United States, which are beginning to understand in many capitals of the world.
On March 1, 2018, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin delivered an annual address to the Federal Assembly , which had a "special, landmark character" and can be considered as the basis of the election program of the Russian presidential candidate V. Putin. In his address, Vladimir Putin highlighted the fundamental importance of the current moment, stressed that "the coming years will be decisive for the future of the country," noting also that "changes in the world are of a civilizational nature." He pointed out to the critical internal threat to the security and development of Russia, namely: "technological backwardness and dependence leading to a decrease in the security and economic opportunities of the country, which may result in the loss of sovereignty." In recent years, a "solid foundation" has been created to neutralize this threat, and "we are ready for a real breakthrough." He spoke in detail about system transformations in the economy and the social sphere, the main priorities and projects, such as: "spatial development, investments in infrastructure, in education, health care and ecology, in new technologies and science, measures of support to the economy, assistance to talents and youth, all of this is supposed to work for one, strategic task, a breakthrough development of Russia." The main purpose of such evolutionary leap is "to preserve the people of Russia and the well-being of our citizens." It is the welfare of the people of Russia that determines the ultimate goal of management.
Very indicative was the part of the message in which the President of the Russian Federation clearly presented new types of strategic nuclear forces, "invulnerable to enemy air and missile defense systems." противника». At the same time, the very tone of the message and the stated ultimate goals in the military-technical sphere were exclusively peaceful. "The growing military power of Russia is just a guarantee of peace on our planet", which can be really implemented only within the framework of the strategic balance of nuclear forces. This basic truth in the sphere of international relations was very clearly addressed to the military and political leadership of the United States. Only on a contractual basis, and not by unilateral withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and the creation of ABM systems, can US security and strategic stability in the world be ensured. An important conclusion for a peaceful creative life in Russia is that the implementation of breakthrough technologies in the military-technical sphere indicates to the presence of Russian "breakthrough potential" and sets the drive for the development of the country as a whole.
The latest system of Russian strategic weapons presented by the President dispelled the myth of multiple military superiority of the United States, which supports the entire foreign policy of that country. If the United States is unable to provide its own military security, then the whole "protective" ideology for American vassal and allies around the world is collapsing, revealing its occupation essence of the planetary scale (more than 700 American military bases in 130 countries on 5 continents).
The Russian liberal community is not able to recognize the self-evident fact: in the modern global world, there is a constantly escalating struggle for life-supporting natural resources, and for this reason alone, Russia will not be allowed to "quietly" develop. The bloody anti-people "democratization" of a number of "oil – bearing " Middle East countries according to the American scenario is the clearest proof of this. Besides, Russia has all the prerequisites to seriously compete with Western countries in the development of the digital economy and the development of technologies of the 4th industrial revolution. Therefore, it is vital to ensure national security and increase Russia's defense capability in order to implement sustainable socio-economic development of the country. A necessary condition for the transformation of the system of public administration, renewal of the ruling elite and generally breakthrough development is the development of a model or project of the future of Russia ("target coast"). The consolidating national idea defines basic values and a vector of spiritual development of the nation, expresses the General purpose and sense of life (mission) of the nation in the present and in future. Numerous attempts to define and photographically reflect the national idea were unsuccessful. Modern information technologies and the global Internet allow a fundamentally different approach to this issue, considering it not as a one-time action, but as a search process with intermediate results.
In his article "Russia is focusing – the challenges we must meet" V.V. Putin emphasized that the Russian society and authorities "...need a broad dialogue – about the future, priorities, long-term choice, national development and prospects." Such a dialogue can be organized through the network interaction of citizens on the Internet and be aimed at the creation of a virtual model of the "required future" of Russia, using, in particular, the powerful constructive potential of social networks, which is now practically not in demand. A significant part of the Internet community is engaged in criticism of the current government, without making an effort in the search for alternative solutions to problems. We are talking about the creation of a developing network model that covers almost all aspects of people's lives (politics, economy, social sphere, ecology, etc.). The multi-aspect nature of the model leads to the involvement of the general population in its development. The dynamic network model includes the "image of the future Russia" as a strategic target state, and the mechanisms for its achievement. The general outlines of the image of the future of Russia in the representation of state authorities are determined after the development of long-term strategies for its socio-economic development and national security.
The President of the Russian Federation could lead and supervise the work on the creation of a national model of Russia's future, while receiving a rich direct feedback from the citizens of the country. It is important to note that social networks are becoming the most favorable environment for the political activity of the middle class that is gaining strength and that determines the democratic basis of modern society. The nationwide process of developing the Internet model will contribute to the formation of a network political culture and, in general, the formation of a competitive network policy as one of the most progressive forms of political organization.
It is crucially important to find an effective balance between the interests of significant social groups in the society thus increasing the total power of the country (its material and spiritual values) to a level that ensures the security and development of Russia in an era of fierce international competition with the probability of a new world war. It is the total power of Russia, which has the world's richest human and natural capital that will allow in times of crisis to protect and maximize personal and social well-being. The President of Russia faces a grandiose, without exaggeration, fateful task of transforming the system of public administration государственного управления, formation of a new ruling elite in order to ensure national security and socio-economic development of the country. The scale and depth of the vital for modern Russia reforms are not inferior in their significance to the radical reforms carried out by Peter the Great.
The election of the President of Russia was a fateful event, a point of bifurcation, determining the direction of development at the national and world levels. That is why the United States and the collective West have made and will continue to make unprecedented efforts to demonize V. Putin. Now only Vladimir Putin is able to lead Russia along the path of a great independent power, which in alliance with China is a critical threat to the United States. Vladimir Putin won the presidential election with stunning success, having received a national mandate to carry out reforms in Russia. Historically, Russia, as a strategically important country in the world, has found itself under strong external pressure and must make its choice. There are reasons to believe that the bifurcation point of Russia can become a moment of truth for all mankind.
BIBLIOGRAPHIC LIST:
1. Izvestia, newspaper of 16.01.2012.
2. Piketty T. Capital in the XXI century / Translation from English. – М., 2016.
3. URL: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957.