MIKHAILENKO A.N. TNCs and Diplomacy in the Conditions of Global Polycentricity
A.N. MIKHAILENKO Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, Professor at the Chair of international security and foreign political activities of Russia, Faculty of national security, Institute of law and national security, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia
TNCs AND DIPLOMACY IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL POLYCENTRICITY
The emerging polycentric world is characterized by uncertainty and conflictness. Transnational companies, the most important subject of the world economy and politics, adapt very effectively to these peculiarities. They develop network structures, they are aimed at tough competition in the market, they use advanced forecasting methods and make more flexible decisions. Competitive intelligence services have been established and are working productively to reduce uncertainty. TNCs change the attractive features of their brands in a timely manner, depending on the market priorities and consumer demand. The foreign policy services of the various countries can learn a lot from the experience of TNCs in the global economic and political arena.
Key words: uncertainty, TNC, network diplomacy, forecasting, intelligence, competitive intelligence, soft power, attractiveness policy, Statoil, LUKOIL.
All countries, international organizations and other actors in the world politics and economy are committed to stability and sustainability. These properties are extremely difficult to achieve at the early stages of the formation of a new world order, which seems to be a polycentric world. The essential features of its formation are the uncertainty and conflictness of international relations. They are manifested in various projections and lead to an aggravation of the world situation. Uncertainty in international affairs is a challenge that needs to be addressed effectively. The main subjects of the world economy and politics, each with its own specifics, are trying to find these answers some more and some less successfully. The answers found by this or that subject of world politics can be used by analogy by other subjects.
Of the many political and economic subjects, transnational companies (TNCs) are quite effective in dealing with uncertainty. According to UNCTAD, TNCs produce more than 50% of the world's industrial production, sell more than 60% of the world's foreign trade turnover and carry out more than 90% of foreign direct investment in foreign countries. Their weight in the world is constantly growing and the economic situation of many of them is comparable with the economies of considerably large countries. Thus, the gross value added of Walmart is comparable to the GDP of Vietnam, with a population of almost 100 million and a market value of Apple is higher than the Dutch GDP. The role of non-state actors, including TNCs, in world political affairs is constantly increasing.
Thus, from the political point of view, transnational companies seem to be an interesting object of research. Various aspects of the activities of TNCs are being studied, but not much attention is paid to the factors of their success in the face of uncertainty. In this article, we will look at how TNCs respond to the uncertainty of international markets and how their achievements can be used in world politics. In our view, the world economy is dealing with uncertainty much better than politics. The article discusses the main factors of success of TNCs in the face of uncertainty and concludes that politicians have much to learn from the heads of transnational companies in terms of orientation in today's unpredictable world.
TNCs in the Environment of Global Economic and Political Uncertainty
According to American Enterprise Institute, Fortune 500 firms 2016, list of five hundred largest American companies includes only 12% of the companies that were in that list in 1955 . In other words, there is a constant updating of the list of the most successful companies due to "creative destruction". Those of them that stand still and do not develop immediately drop out of it. There is an increase in the rate of change in another well-known list of TNCs maintained by a consulting company S&P. It is necessary to be prepared for these changes, because rapid adaptation to novelty is an important factor in ensuring the success of a multinational company. What do leading TNCs do to ensure success in the face of rapid, unpredictable changes?
There are separate publications that analyze the impact of uncertainty on the decision-making in multinational companies. Such newly developing field of knowledge as studies, among other things, the mechanisms of economic decision-making under uncertainty. Large TNCs take into account such aspects of these processes, as the high rate of change and the emergence of disruptive technologies. Experts believe that it is necessary to increase flexibility as a response to unpredictability, to expand the range of persons involved in decision-making and to ensure transparency of data. There is less space for slow hierarchical structures in any transnational business. At the same time, network structures more adapted to uncertainty are successfully progressing.
A.C. Skakunova, when exploring the decision-making process during the selection of strategy for the development of world leading automobile companies under uncertainty, reveals such internal factors as complexity and diversity of products, attitude to risks and flexibility in decision-making. As for the external factors, they include market growth rates, market barriers, competitive environment and others. The above author identifies factors influencing the development of the global automotive industry that form the basis for the changes in the strategies of TNCs. Among them are changes in consumer preferences, the emergence of alternative fuels and others.
The most important element of the TNC decision-making process under conditions of uncertainty is prediction. Forecasts of British Petroleum are widely used not only by private business, but also by government agencies around the world. Complex methods in forecasting are used more and more widely. In recent years, software tools and methods are used more and more actively. For example, Netflix announced a competition with a prize pool of US$ 1 mln for the creation of a computer program that will help determine which movies will appeal to viewers. Informatization of TNC activities is manifested in many other aspects.
The development of a global strategy of a multinational company today requires the improvement of existing and the use of new approaches, tools and methods of forecasting. K. A. Kozenyashev notes that among other things the role of scenario approaches on different time horizons becomes a tool for the change management. He analyzes differences between scenarios, forecasts and visions as the tools of strategic management of oil companies development. The importance of the scenario approach is also noted by George Ringland, according to whom scenario is an "element of strategic planning based on the ways and technologies aimed at managing uncertainties of the future".
On the basis of scenario approaches, forecasts are developed, the most popular among which are the materials of the International Energy Agency, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the Energy Information Department of the US Department of Energy, Eurogas, MIT, Shell, ExxonMobil, as well as widely used abroad TIMES scenario models from the family of MARKAL, SECURE, PRIMES, etc. They form the basis for the development of concepts not only for the global oil industry, but also for the entire energy sector in the medium and, most importantly, in the long term.
In the study of the activities of TNCs we note their focus on competition, their willingness to face the unexpected strategy of competitors and to find a way out of a difficult situation. It is worth noting that transnational companies call each other competitors, whereas states traditionally call each other partners in the process of foreign policy cooperation. However, in the US National Defense Strategy, released at the end of 2017, the world is no longer defined as a partner world, but as a competitive world, and the US National Defense Strategy states that "the return of a long-term strategic competition with China and Russia is a central challenge to the welfare and security of the United States". TNCs are equally ready to cooperate with competitors, but competition is in the first place.
This is especially true in the most dynamic markets. Thus, the world market of soft drinks is very dynamic and changeable, new items in it replace each other with a fair frequency. Such transnational companies as Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Danone, Nestle and Unilever Group are the constant leaders of the world market, which causes high and tough competition, especially growing during the period of instability. Despite the turbulence of the environment, flexible approaches to managing the strategies of these world-renowned TNCs have allowed them to hold their positions by reorienting from saturated, developed markets in the US and Europe to the rapidly growing markets with significant potential returns. In addition, the author draws attention to the virtualization of TNC activities as a method of increasing competitiveness, as well as to the coordination of the interests of many groups and participants of the market system at each stage of the chosen competitive strategy of TNC.
Foreign and domestic TNCs are much more devoted adherents of Proteus, the god of the variability, than states represented by their foreign services. G. Rometti, IBM CEO, emphasized that the ability to change lies "in the DNA" of the company led by her, which has 400 thousand employees in 170 countries. Russian TNCs are also ready for changes. Thus, the strategy of LUKOIL, one of the largest Russian TNCs, provides for a variety of changes in the oil market and ways of responding to them. The company strives to achieve its strategic goals by strengthening its position in the industry in three areas. It plans to achieve this by implementing new projects in the Exploration and Production, Processing, and Trade and Marketing segments. The company is working to develop its competitive advantages through the use of modern technologies. The company's strategy states continuous optimization of processes using the existing assets in order to maximize efficiency. As is clear, all three areas are associated with the changes taking place in the industry. Meanwhile, as we have already noted in one of the previous works, the key words in the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation are "stability" and "sustainability".
An important area of TNC activity in the face of uncertainty is the support of positive initiatives for the common good. The common good is a distant beacon that helps companies not to lose the motion vector in the poor visibility conditions. Thus, Walmart, which only in the USA has about 4.6 thousand shops and isn't famous for high salaries or good working conditions, is placing now a big bet on the renewable energy. It recently announced that it will reduce emissions from its network of suppliers by 1 billion tons of greenhouse gases by 2030. This is the same as if more than 200 million cars per year disappeared from the world's roads. In foreign policy, such a beacon could probably be the "the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development", which the UN member-states adopted on September 25, 2015.
When it comes to management and TNCs, Western companies and Western management experience come to mind in the first place. Meanwhile, in the era of polycentricity, the experience of other centers of power, such as Japan and China should also be of interest. In these countries companies use the principle of "foresight", which means the ability to draw conclusions based on minor signs and weak signals. In accordance with their worldview, the Chinese strive to develop the ability to survive in the conditions of constant chaos and to grow the "seeds of future changes," turning chaos into harmony. Such strategy and tactics better correspond to the current situation of uncertainty in the world economy and politics than characteristic of stability clarity and determinance. Responses of foreign policy services.
Most of the above-mentioned areas of uncertainty managment applied by the TNCs are also present in foreign policy. The format of the article does not allow to consider in detail all their diversity. Let's focus only on some of them. Thus, it has been repeatedly stated at various international forums that in recent decades there has been an acceleration of foreign policy. This is evidenced by the increasing rate of changes in the concepts of Russia's foreign policy. The first of them was adopted in 1993, the second – in 2000, the third-in 2008, the fourth – in 2013, and finally, the fifth – in 2016. If this rate of change in concepts is maintained, the next one will have to be adopted already this year, if it is needed at all. This situation does not meet the requirements of the Federal Law of June 28, 2014 № 172-FZ "On strategic planning in the Russian Federation", according to which domestic national security strategies should be adjusted every six years, and foreign policy concepts should be brought into line with the updated strategies.
At the same time, the experience of TNCs shows that the increase in the rate of change does not lead to a slip of companies on the competitive surface. Many production cycles in multinational companies from the beginning of a new idea to the release of a product to the market are long-term and take up to 10 years. Therefore, TNCs combine the acceleration of change noted above with the deepening of their elaboration. The acceleration of foreign policy processes places higher demands on diplomatic activity, the readiness of diplomats, and the expansion of their competence. Deepening in foreign policy requires a higher quality of forecasting and research support for foreign policy activities.
Following the example of TNCs, the problem of breakthroughs in foreign policy is of great interest, as their role in world development is likely to increase. Let us recall the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the situation in Syria in the summer of 2017: "You know, whoever reacted to this in whatever way, but I can tell you that this is one of the breakthroughs that we managed to make, by the way, in the course of working with President Trump." It is necessary to strive to understand their nature and to master their mechanisms of regulation. The breakthrough itself is a huge success, but I would like the breakthroughs to happen not accidently, but regularly. To do this, it is necessary to study them systematically, because a breakthrough is a leap, and any development, including foreign policy, takes place in leaps.
Among the various areas of research on this issue, it would be advisable to pay attention to the dialectical opposition of the breakthrough – failure. They are not uncommon in the foreign policy of the world, and their study could contribute to a more effective implementation of national interests. Brexit could be considered as an example of a major political failure in the development of the European Union, no matter how European politicians presented this event to the general public. Former and current employees of the US administration consider one of the most significant failures of US intelligence their failure to develop an accurate forecast of the timing of the North Korean nuclear missile program. As a result, Pyongyang has a missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the United States. The American administration has overlooked at this direction a lot of "critical turns" and has met with many surprises. Terms "turns" and "surprises" could be the subject of an in-depth study of the world politics.
In the above-mentioned breakthrough in Syria, another pattern that is used in TNCs is also evident: in conditions of uncertainty, it is advisable to expand the range of persons involved in decision-making. In this case, the decision on Syria was taken not behind the scenes, "tete-a-tete", other players with significant interests in the region were involved in this process. In such case, more significant factors are taken into account and due to this such decisions are becoming more defensible, although it is more difficult to take them. Working in this direction, it is desirable not to break the existing international formats, but to complete them in order to increase their efficiency, as evidenced by the popular wisdom "to break is easier than to build."
In terms of understanding the breakthroughs, it is necessary to study the "turning points" in the foreign policy of other countries. We are witnessing such a turn in Japanese policy towards the Chinese initiative "One Belt, One Road". Since the announcement of this initiative by China in 2013, Tokyo has been constantly against it, and suddenly in May 2017, the Japanese sent a representative delegation to the One Belt, One Road Forum in Beijing, headed by T. Nikai, Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic party. Moreover, in early June 2017, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, when drawing on Asia's "dream", supported the idea of OBOR as the most important link between East and West. Understanding such reassessments and turns in foreign policy of other countries would permit using such instruments more subtly.
Analysis of the list of the world largest TNCs shows that companies in the field of information technology occupy an increasingly high place in it. Previously, raw materials, primarily energy companies, won prizes in this list. There are few of such companies in the current list, instead among the ten largest TNCs we see Apple, Microsoft, IMB, Wallmart (which works in the retail sector, but very actively uses information technology), Google and AT&T Inc. Russia is in line with this trend: in the summer of 2017, the Russian Government approved the program "Digital Economy of the Russian Federation". However, we should not limit ourselves to the economy, the experience of TNCs shows the need for digitization of national foreign policy.
In turn, the digitization of national foreign policy can be considered as an element of solving a broader task, that of developing Russian network diplomacy. Not only the experience of TNCs, but also the diplomatic theory and practice of the countries of the world attest to the necessity and urgency of such decision. Foreign policy analysts are carefully studying the prospects of modern diplomacy. There are different directions of development of network diplomacy, including public, digital, Twitter diplomacy and others. It is noted, for example, that about two thirds of the world's foreign ministers now have their own Twitter pages, and this activity is becoming increasingly multifaceted. Detailed consideration of the issues of development of network diplomacy deserves a separate study.
Forecasting methods are widely used in foreign policy, as in TNCs. From recent domestic foreign policy forecasts we will name, for example, the work of scientists of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations , RIAC Forecasting Report on Russia's Foreign Policy in 2018 and research by Foreign Policy Analysis Group.
Among the foreign forecasts it is impossible not to recall the regularly published reports of the American National Intelligence Council on global trends. From a methodological point of view, it would be useful to compare the accuracy of political and economic forecasts, as well as the similarities and differences in the means and methods of their preparation.
Perhaps the more accurate forecasts of economists are partly due to the fact that the world economy in most aspects is measured quantitatively, and this makes it possible to more accurately predict its development. In this regard, it is advisable to conduct further research on the problems of measuring world politics. As for the so-called hard power, there are quite a lot of such measurements and indices. A more complex problem is the measurement of soft influence. But even here the scientific community, including the Russian one, is carrying out the relevant work. Thus, on October 20, 2017, the Second international conference SOFT POWER: Theory, Resources, Discourse was held in Yekaterinburg (the author took part in it). The organizers of the conference pointed to the participants that "among the new trends in the study of soft power, which will be analyzed during the conference, is the turn from the study of general conceptual aspects of the phenomenon of soft power to the analysis of soft power rating systems and measuring instruments". Such research work should be carried out in other areas of world politics.
Active intelligence activities
Competitive intelligence is a reliable tool used by TNCs to improve their performance in an uncertain environment. The purpose of intelligence is precisely to reduce the degree of uncertainty, as we wrote in our previous works. In this regard, transnational companies are following the example of the state intelligence services, which have been very active recently. Thus, CIA Director Mike Pompeo openly stated in BBC interview that "we have the best spy service in the world… We go there (abroad) and do everything in our power to get secret information that can help the American people."
In terms of active intelligence activities, TNCs, to put it mildly, do not lag behind the states. There are competitive intelligence units that provide the management with intelligence information in 90% of the top U.S. Fortune companies. For example, Norwegian TNC Statoil works in more than 30 countries and employs about 21 thousand workers, its assets exceed US$ 130 billion. The company's management requires the competitive intelligence service to provide information on strategic topics: competitive trends, breakthrough technologies, innovations, insights, external context of Statoil's activities, etc.
In the structure of Statoil, the Competitor Analysis team is included in the competitor analysis group. Organizationally it is a part the Corporate Strategy and Innovation unit, which reports directly to the company's Board of Directors and its Executive Committee. This is extremely important, because each additional administrative link leads to a decrease in the efficiency of information activities of competitive intelligence. The success of the Norwegian TNC is largely due to its corporate intelligence.
It is safe to say that the growing global uncertainty requires increased intelligence. This general pattern applies to all countries, including Russia. Foreign partners argue that Russian intelligence, which has a glorious historical tradition, does not rest on its laurels. So, in the middle of summer 2017, the American channel CNN distributed information, according to which after the presidential elections in the United States Russian intelligence has significantly strengthened its work in the country. The need for additional information was explained by the fact that President Trump turned out to be very unpredictable. According to the US intelligence services, at that time about 150 Russian intelligence officers worked in the USA, much more than in other countries. Only a naive person would believe that the intelligence services of other countries slept at that time and did not perform their main function: providing the political leadership of their countries with the necessary strategic information.
The experience of competitive intelligence services of TNCs shows a new trend: a widespread use of "big data" processing techniques. The study of databases, social networks and other electronic sources provides a significant amount of interesting information to competitive intelligence services. The same trend can be observed in the intelligence activities of individual countries. For example, in the UK, the lion's share of the budget of the intelligence community, which includes the MI6 Intelligence service, the MI5 Counterintelligence service and the GCHQ Government Communications Center, falls on the latter, and the number of its employees is more than two times higher than that of MI5 and MI6 combined. This trend should be taken into account in the development of intelligence issues within the framework of the domestic foreign policy strategy.
Another trend in competitive intelligence is that the most successful multinational companies seek synergies between customer service, marketing, strategic planning, human resources, research and other services of the company and the competitive intelligence service. Taking into account that more than 90% of information in competitive intelligence is extracted from open sources, such cooperation of various divisions of the company is very productive. This experience should also be used in diplomatic activities. Diplomats should know the basic intelligence needs of their country. They should have at least some initial training on the basics of intelligence activities so that they can make a stronger contribution to the realization of Russia's national interests.
The most important function of competitive intelligence services in TNCs is to identify the facts of the use by the participants in economic interaction of the techniques of unfair competition. These techniques are defined in national and international legislation. Federal Law No. 135-FZ of 26 July 2006 "On protection of competition" is in force in Russia. In international law, many legal acts have been directed against unfair competition, starting with the Paris Convention of 1883 "On the protection of industrial property" and ending with the ever-evolving legislation of the World Trade Organization on this issue. We can cite such well known examples of unfair competition techniques used by transnational companies as the diesel scandal with the world-famous BMW or unfair actions by Uber.
In world politics, there is no legal definition of unfair politics. Meanwhile, according to Sergey Lavrov, the United States is increasingly resorting to unfair methods, the range of which is very wide "from the deployment of the global missile defense system to unilateral sanctions, extraterritorial application of its own legislation and … threats to solve any international problems exclusively according to their own scenario, without stopping before anything, including the use of rough military force." Many scientists and politicians note that US political sanctions are aimed at obtaining economic competitive advantages. Research is needed on how unfair foreign policy practices of the United States and some other countries can be limited within the framework of the new global developing economic and political order.
Attractiveness Policy
The most important direction of foreign policy development in the world in modern conditions is the so-called soft power, which would be more accurate to call the policy of attractiveness. Political sciences study various aspects of such policy. Uncertainty on the world arena dictates a sharp expansion of the policy of attractiveness (soft power) in international relations. This is because international law cannot keep up with global political changes. It is difficult to adhere to the clearly established legal norms, as part of the so-called hard power, hence follows the necessity to find new, unexplored paths in the world affairs that would subsequently find their proper legal forms in international treaties and agreements. To find such forms is only a part of the case, it is equally important to convince other countries of the correctness of such path and to involve them in following it.
Another reason for the growth of the role of attractiveness policy is the existence of conflicts in international law. One of best known cases, considered by many as a conflict of law, is the contradiction between the principles of territorial integrity and the right of peoples to self-determination. An example in this regard is the situation with the reunification of Crimea and Russia. Ukraine and many countries supporting it emphasize the principle of territorial integrity and talk about Russia's "aggression" and "occupation" of Crimea. Crimeans themselves, supported by Russia and some other countries, stand up for the principle of self-determination. It was implemented in the referendum in the spring of 2014 and both sides have convincing, from their point of view, arguments. Obviously, in the context of global uncertainty, the policy of attractiveness of decisions should play a greater role. Foreign politicians, coming to Crimea, see that there are no concentration camps or barbed wire typical for occupation and that an absolute majority of Crimeans support reunification with Russia. The problem is to make this knowledge available to the general world public.
The growing importance of the attractiveness policy is evident in the TNCs change in the requirements for employees. Today, more and more sought after are employees with soft skills against those with hard skills. The latter include all the narrow professional competencies that allow people to resolve well-set production tasks. The first group of skills allows a person to be successful due to the ability to convince others, to reveal the attractiveness of ideas, to work in a team, to take responsibility and to be flexible. These are the qualities that are necessary for the work in unpredictable conditions. Transnational companies, including such Russian company as, for example, Sberbank, carry out purposeful work aimed at developing soft skills of its employees. Russian diplomats should also do this. Russian scientists and diplomats are required to take new approaches to the development of the national policy of attractiveness.
Russia is still quite strong in its policy of attractiveness. The achievements of the international news channel "Russia Today," Twitter diplomacy of the Russian Embassy in the UK and other foreign policy structures are so obvious that Western countries are forced not to compete or cooperate with them, but to try to limit their activities. Is it time to calm down on such achievements of Russian attractiveness policy? I do not think there can be a positive answer to that question. It is necessary to look for new opportunities to enhance the attractiveness of Russia and its foreign policy in the world. Domestic TNCs can play an important role in this regard, as evidenced by China's experience.
Chinese brands react quickly to the changes in the external circumstances. Chinese car brand Trumpchi proposed to change the name of the car of the same name because it sounds very much as the name of the current American President, and "Trump" in Chinese means "the best" and Chi – "for China." Recently, the desire of large Chinese TNCs to create a positive image of their country among foreign partners has become noticeable. About three dozen of Chinese TNCs are very popular all over the world, including the long-known Lenovo and Huawei and the relatively recent Alibaba and ELEX. 8 out of 10 people in the world recognize the name Huawei because it is advertised by one of the best world football players L. Messi. ELEX has 50 million users in 40 countries. This is a huge audience, the influence on which means a lot in world politics. Russian TNCs and diplomacy should have studied in more detail this Chinese experience of developing the policy of attractiveness.
The role of international branding in the activities of TNCs is very large. So, T. Beregovskaya, analyzing this aspect, draws attention to the following points: turbulence of the world economy, shorter life cycle of goods, diversification of international sales channels, differentiation of the effective demand of the world population. It’s no need to have a rich imagination to see that most of the above aspects are to some extent present in the foreign policy. Diversification of transport corridors, the emergence of new important foreign policy players, sharp turns in foreign policy are regularly manifested in the international arena. The search query "turbulent" made by the author of this text on the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry brought 181 answers: turbulent, it turns out, is not only foreign economic but also foreign political environment. Effective reaction to the foreign policy changes can contribute to the strengthening of the Russian policy of attraction.
Role of personalities
TNC leaders with virtuoso business thinking are increasingly engaged by the society for the resolution of the top priority state tasks. There were plenty of examples of this remarkable process in 2017. Emanuel Macron, a former investment banker and then Minister of Economy, Finance and Digital Economy, was elected President of France in spring 2017. In the summer of 2017, billionaire H. Battulga won the election and became President of Mongolia. In October 2017, the party of billionaire A. Babish won the parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic. Billionaire Sebastian Pinera won presidential election in Chile in December 2017. This repetition means it is systematic and not random phenomenon.
Big businessmen bring business approaches to public administration. Often, these approaches differ significantly from the usual ones adopted in the system of public administration. It's not that this or that person stands out among entrepreneurs. If he is elected in a national referendum or invited from business to a high position in the system of public administration, it means that his abilities and competencies are needed today for the effective development of not one, even a very large company, but the whole country. It is obvious that the skills that large businessmen receive in their activities correspond to the needs of public administration in the conditions of growing uncertainty in the world arena.
What are these skills? According to the data of the global independent business Association Conference Board, in 2000-2013 a quarter of the General Directors of Fortune 500 companies were dismissed. A quarter of them did it against their will. The study showed that effective CEOs demonstrate four qualities necessary for success: they are determined, reliable, able to enlist the support and proactive in a changing environment. Successful top managers make decisions sooner, faster and with more conviction than others. They do so at all times, even in the face of lack of data and on unclear issues. D. Barton global managing partner of McKinsey noted that the main quality of a successful top manager is "the ability to cope with situations that are not written in textbooks. The head of the company is constantly faced with situations for which it is impossible to create instructions.” It is also very important for the CEO to catch the first signs of change, the so-called "weak signals". It is obvious that such qualities should be inherent in the highest civil servants who form and implement the foreign policy of the country. Relevant skills should be incorporated into their training programs.
In this regard, it makes sense to recall the story with the inauguration of US Secretary of state R. Tillerson, former head of the giant TNC Exxon Mobil. According to the usual practice, the newly appointed Secretary of State partially or completely changes the leadership of the State Department in order to pursue a new political line. It is usual for TNCs, when the company's management is changed, to conduct a thorough audit and to determine the state of affairs in the company for a possible change in its strategy. That's exactly what J. Tillerson did, he initiated a deep study of the State Department. It turned out that during the presidency of Barak Obama the State Department was very bloated. Some of its units competed with each other, performing similar functions. Resources had been used inefficiently, as reflected, for example, in the fact that at least 10 different information systems had been installed in the Department. The issues of diplomatic security, most important for the diplomats, as well as Washington's support for American embassies in the different countries, were poorly addressed. It was also revealed that coordination of the State Department with other public authorities was very poor. A view from a different, unusual perspective, helped to identify flaws that significantly impeded the effective work of the State Department.
It can be assumed that it is not fully justified to put two worlds on the same Board: the world of economy and the world of politics. There is a perception that the world of economics is the world of accuracy, formulas, EBITDA, etc., while the world of politics is a game in which the more sophisticated and cunning wins. Indeed, there is a difference between these two worlds, the examination of which requires a separate study. But there is also a lot in common between them, as evidenced by the success of large businessmen in the state political field, including foreign policy. In this sense, the strategies and techniques used by multinational companies for orientation in uncertain conditions may be of great interest to politicians.
If you trust American TV channel CNN, the Russian intelligence hit the "top ten" defining D. Trump as ‘unpredictable.’ N. Haley, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, said in early 2018 that world leaders are literally glued to Twitter, reading President Trump's tweets and seeking to understand future actions of the United States. They consider Trump unpredictable, do not know how the US will behave in any particular period of time, and therefore behave much more cautiously. N. Haley, who grew up on the cult of exclusivity of the United States, cannot imagine that the world leaders have much more interesting things to do than reading President Trump’s Tweets. And yet, let us note that she does not deny such President Trump’s trait. Moreover, she believes that unpredictability serves a good service to American foreign policy.
This approach to unpredictability is the opposite of yesterday's cult of stability. The ideal of stability and resilience is very attractive, but the new era brings new demands to ideals. Indefinite, conflict, changeable, unpredictable period of formation of the polycentric world will increasingly require caution, flexibility in changes and speed in making informed decisions. The methods of TNC actions considered in the article, factors taken into account when making strategic decisions give a hint in what directions it is necessary to develop the system of the state foreign policy in modern conditions. These two areas – TNCs and foreign policy – are different in many respects, but they have much in common, and this suggests that the search in this direction can be fruitful.
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HAJIYEV M.M. National Traditions of the Peoples of Dagestan and their Role in Social Cohesion
M.M. HAJIYEV Candidate of Sciences (political sciences), Associate Professor at the Chair of philosophy and socio-political sciences, Dagestan State University, Makhachkala, Russia
NATIONAL TRADITIONS OF THE PEOPLES OF DAGESTAN AND THEIR ROLE IN SOCIAL COHESION
This article is devoted to the role of national traditions and customs of Dagestan in social cohesion. It examines the relationship of the traditions with ethnic relations. It focuses on such traditions as the unity of the peoples of Dagestan, as hospitality, kunachestvo, labor and family traditions.
Key words: society, traditions, custom, national relations, patriotism, unity, hospitality, kunachestvo.
The preamble of the Constitution of the Republic of Dagestan reads: "We, the multinational people of the Republic of Dagestan, an integral part of the multinational people of the Russian Federation."
Instilling love for Russia, its history, culture, language, traditions, peoples living in it, we are equally called upon to instill love for multinational Dagestan, for our small homeland, native language, our traditions and customs.
The unique subject of the Russian Federation, which is Dagestan, has long been home to more than 30 nationalities who live in peace and harmony, forming a single and integral multilingual Dagestan community. One of the factors of consolidation of the Dagestan society is the unity of its people.
The III-rd Congress of the peoples of Dagestan supported the policy of preserving unity, peace and harmony in the Republic, strengthening friendship and unity in Dagestan society, updating ancient traditions and all spheres of life and established the day of unity of the peoples of Dagestan, celebrated every year on September 15.
The role of the Russian language is great in ensuring Dagestan unity. Public authorities engaged in the field of national relations are trying to ensure a balance between all languages.
Russian language is not only the language of interethnic communication for Dagestanis, but it also acts as a means through which the highlanders master Russian and world culture. Introduction to Russian culture, and through it, to the world culture has became an important condition for the formation of Dagestan's national intelligentsia and strengthening of national consciousness.
Thus, the Russian language, having become the language of interethnic communication for Dagestanis, contributes not only to the unity of the peoples of Dagestan, but also acts as the core of the all-Russian national unity, strengthening of friendship between the peoples of the country.
The role of Russia in strengthening the unity of multi-ethnic Dagestan should be specially emphasized.
In the eyes of Dagestanis, the Russian people, in their absolute majority, are creative people, internationally minded, characterized by diligence, wisdom, humanism, high will and endurance.
The unselfish help of Russian and other peoples in the creation of industrial centers and development of the economy of the Republic was expressed in the most various forms: provision by the Federal Government of gratuitous cash loans in the form of grants, preferential loans; assistance in the creation of large industrial centers by sending to the factories of machines, tractors and other machinery and equipment; exchange of advanced technical and economic experience, patronage of advanced enterprises, sending to the Republic of skilled workers and specialists, training of workers and engineering personnel from among the representatives of the Dagestan peoples at the enterprises of various Russian regions.
Russian people provided immense help in the development of culture, education and spiritual life of the peoples of the mountainous region. Many representatives of the Russian intelligentsia worked selflessly for the benefit of Dagestan. Teachers, doctors, scientists, artists, representatives of other specialties came to our Republic from Russia and conducted fruitful work aimed at training national personnel and development of national culture of the people of Dagestan.
On the basis of interaction with Russian teachers and experts, the majority of citizens of Dagestan of the older and middle generations has developed a certain idea of Russias as honest, decent, simple, educated, diligent, wise, willing to help, etc.
For many Dagestanis, the first lesson of the Russian language by a Russian teacher remains unforgettable. Many people engaged in education and health care spent their best years in the distant villages of our Republic, carrying the light of knowledge and love to Dagestanis; they played a huge role in strengthening health and reviving the spiritual life of the peoples of Dagestan.
It should be noted that the invaluable assistance of the Russian people to the Dagestanis has never been one-sided. Thus, representatives of all the peoples of Dagestan, took an active part in the restoration of cities, towns, mines, roads to and post-war periods in different regions of Russia, in the development areas of the North, Siberia, the Far East and other mutual aid and mutual support is enhanced by taking account of the challenges facing Russia in the current difficult conditions.
The friendship of the peoples of our country, as we know, grew and strengthened mainly due to the solution of many problems of development of Nations and national relations.
The peoples of Dagestan have always trusted each other, respected each other, learned from each other, borrowed the best qualities from each other. The feeling of unity never left Dagestanis, although there were forces seeking to prevent it. The ideas of unity of Dagestanis have become a national tradition of unity. Handed down from generation to generation, it has acquired special significance and relevance in our time.
The people of Dagestan have always had very strong Patriotic feelings and love for their Motherland.
The Strategy of the State National Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 ensures the preservation and enhancement of the spiritual and cultural potential of the multinational people of the Russian Federation on the basis of the ideas of unity and friendship of peoples and interethnic (interethnic) harmony. Russian patriotism is included in the Strategy among the tasks in the sphere of state national policy of the Russian Federation.
Thus, Russian patriotism is also an important means of strengthening the unity and integrity of a multinational state.
Since the mid-80s of the last century, the discussions about the role and importance of patriotism in the development of society are raging in the country. Skeptics even question the possibility of patriotism in modern society. Such approach is wrong.
Russia needs patriotism, because the people living in it should love the society and the state. Patriotism means unity. Without it, it is impossible to solve either tactical or strategic tasks facing the state. Ensuring the unity of representatives of all nationalities living in the country is the most difficult task. It can be solved only by joint efforts.
Since the second half of the 80-ies of XX century, the system of education in our country has been undermined and nothing was offered in return. The youth of the country was deprived of clear guidelines, reliable social support. These processes have led to the collapse of the entire system of Patriotic education. It was actually destroyed.
A powerful propaganda company, deployed in the media, purposefully etched out of the minds of the younger generation of Russians a sense of love for their homeland, respect for the traditional values of the people and its great past.
But recently in our country there have been serious changes in the public consciousness, a powerful patriotic movement for the revival of the former power of the country, the preservation and strengthening of the unity of the Russian Federation, the unity of the Russian people and the strengthening of friendship between us is gaining strength.
Underestimation of patriotism as the most important component of public consciousness leads to the weakening of socio-economic, spiritual and cultural foundations of society. This determines the priority of Patriotic education in the General system of education of Russian citizens.
Patriotic education, being an integral part of the general educational process, is a systematic and purposeful activity of public authorities and public organizations to form a high patriotic consciousness of citizens, a sense of loyalty to their fatherland, readiness to perform civic duty and constitutional obligations aimed at defending the interests of the Motherland.
Education of patriotism, friendship of peoples, religious tolerance is the most important means of strengthening the unity and integrity of our Motherland – the Russian Federation. In the Russian patriotism, the all-Russian feeling of the citizen (readiness to serve the Homeland, to protect it) is combined with his/her love to the Republic, oblast, district. Patriotism is inextricably linked to the friendly relations of citizens of different nationalities and faiths.
The events of August and September 1999 were a vivid demonstration of the country's strong sense of patriotism. At the behest of civil and patriotic duty soldiers of the federal troops, international groups of people's militia and youth defeated aggressors, defended integrity and unity of the Republic of Dagestan, thwarted plans of its separation from the Russian Federation.
Dagestan has a strong tradition of hospitality. They are one of the most important communication channels for representatives of different villages, ocieties, peoples. "The traditions of hospitality are common for all nations and all social strata, but the specifics of hospitality vary depending on the ethnic composition of the population and the economic possibilities of the family."
Like all peoples of the Caucasus, Dagestanis treat guests with respect and attention. Whatever is the situiation or the family troubles, whatever trouble befell such family, the owner of the house should be attentive to the guests.
The custom of hospitality among the highlanders is largely associated with a kind of cult of home. In oral folk art of mountaineers there are many sayings and parables in which absence of guests qualify as misfortune of the family.
For the highlanders, the hospitality is a sacred tradition. It is associated with many moral precepts that have acquired the power of habits. Therefore, this tradition is treated very seriously and no one under any circumstances violates it. Hospitality is not limited to food and accommodation only. It imposes on the person a number of other duties. In particular, the highlander was supposed to take an active part in the performance of the business for which his kunak came from the mountains, to protect him from all sorts of accidents, to assist him in the sale of the products and so on.
For Dagestanis, the main thing in the traditions of hospitality is not the nationality of the guest, but that fact that a person got into trouble or finds himself in a difficult situation. It was the most important thing for our ancestors. Is it not the recognition, even if unconscious, of the priority of the universal over the national, i.e. the understanding that we, the enlightened people of the beginning of the XXI century, accept with such difficulty.
In modern conditions, this custom has undergone a significant transformation with elements of the new, unknown in the past. As Professor R. M. Magomedov correctly writes, "the main new thing are the features of friendship of peoples that permeated the ancient custom."
In the tradition of Dagestan hospitality there are many progressive traits in the sense of education on the principles of humanism and high morality. The custom of hospitality is not only a Dagestan tradition, it is inherent in all peoples, it is a part of their life.
No less relevant for Dagestanis is the tradition of kunachestvo. Who's a kunak? Kunak is a person who will stick to you closer than your brother and will come to your help at first call and will do for your everything he can, and to whose call you'll come and do for him everything that in your forces in various circumstances, as for example, from matchmaking to participation in the construction of the house. There can be no wedding without kunaks. The birth of children cannot be celebrated without them. The departed cannot be mourned without them.
Kunaks were also connected by mutual economic aid. Mutual friends took part in all activities that were of interest to each other, during the field work people from other villages, which have not started their field work yet, used to come for assistance.
There is a lot of historical evidence, telling us about how kunaks replaced the deceased parents to children or supported kunaks economicaly until they stand on their feet. Refusal to accept kunaks without reason was regarded as a disgrace not only for the family or family groups, but for the entire village. According to the testimony of rural elders, in the past, to honor the arrival of kunaks, especially from the neighboring area, a celebration was arranged, where elderly people who know the history, traditions and customs of the village or the area were invited. It was typical for all peoples of Dagestan.
As the well-known scientist ethnographer S. Sh. Hajiyeva testifies: "In honor of kunaks (especially visitors from distant lands) rich noble families arranged big celebrations where they invited musicians, singers, people knowledgeable in history and traditions of the people. On such occasion, young people gathered in the house, including girls well-dressed for dancing."
Friendly relations between the two kunaks, as a rule, passed from generation to generation and were observed as a sacred duty.
There are many examples of the role of a kunak and a friend in the resolution of disputes between the auls, jamaats, so hospitality and kunachestvo are factors of Dagestan unity, national traditions of the peoples of Dagestan.
The tradition of mutual aid played an important role in the social life of mountaineers. It was spread to many areas of life and was a great help for the family. Any Dagestan family could count, if necessary, on the support of not only relatives and fellow villagers, but also kunaks and their friends from neighboring villages. Mutual assistance has been and remains a norm of social life for the peoples of Dagestan.
Such custom contributes to the purposeful, organized and systematic effects the family, tuhum and rural jamaat have on the individuals with the aim of forming the norms of universal human morality, ideals, habits and traditions and on the uplifting of the working man.
Mutual assistance, as a moral value, is directly related to the moral upbringing of the individual, which is a dynamically developing process of assimilation of the principles of universal morality and their transformation into the internal beliefs, in the usual human actions.
Mutual assistance among the peoples of Dagestan existed in various forms. First of all, it is mutual labor assistance related to the support and feasible assistance provided in the construction of houses.
Another form of mutual assistance was material assistance provided in case of accidents, as well as in the organization of funerals.
During the wedding celebrations, men help in the implementation of the rites, women-in cooking. Each of the participants of the celebrations provided and provides all possible financial assistance (in the form of gifts to the newlyweds).
In my opinion, financial assistance should be modest, not beyond rural adats. After all, the wedding at all times in all nations was considered a bright holiday. Each of the participants of the celebrations tries to maintain the fun to the best of their abilities: dance, sing, participate in games.
The custom of mutual assistance has played and now plays a positive role not only as a material and moral support in the economy, it promotes the rapprochement of people not only on the basis of family or tukhumnomu principle, but also opens the possibility of strengthening collectivism, the formation of a culture of intra-national and interethnic communication, education of citizens in the spirit of humanism.
The tradition of mutual assistance helped the people of Dagestan to defend their freedom and independence in the fight against the formidable foreign conquerors, to survive in the years of natural disasters and crop failure, it is easier to overcome grief and misfortune when people assist each other.
Another equally important tradition is mentoring. Mentoring in today's difficult conditions has acquired exceptional importance and relevance. We are talking more about coaching in the field of production. Life has confirmed the fallacy of this approach. We believe that mentoring contains a huge educational charge. Therefore, it should be revived and implemented at all levels: family, educational, industrial and military.
No less important tradition is the labour tradition. It should be noted that labor traditions are not just the accumulation and transfer from one generation to another of production experience, methods of labor, professional skills, but first of all the formation and reproduction of advanced motives of human attitude to work, which are extremely important for the development of the person and education of culture of communication in labor associations.
Work collectives are the main guardians and successors of the labour and patriotic traditions. At the time, we had a widespread movement "honor and glory for work." It received support from the general public. Now times have changed. Different social order and different values. In these circumstances, it is time for us to change, but only for the better. We believe that it is necessary to revive and promote the positive achievements made by the society during the period of its development, including those connectewd with the labour traditions. They contain a certain educational and moral charge, which our youth lacks today, and not only youth. Education of a mature, democratic, free-thinking person is impossibe without the formation of a creative, conscious attitude to work. This is the moral core of such a person.
The combination of various forms of education (moral, labor, patriotic, international) in labor groups would contribute to the formation of the leading and basic principle of the way of life inherent in the citizens of the Republic – collectivism. It would increase everyone's responsibility for the success and honor of the team and the responsibility of the team for each of its members.
Joint work in labor associations contributes to the formation of all-Dagestan traditions and rituals that meet the labor needs of all citizens of the Republic. Since ancient times, the peoples of Dagestan celebrated agricultural holidays such as arrival of winter, meeting the spring, the first furrow, harvest, урожая, as well as seeing off and meeting livestock, all of it contributed to the formation of collectivism, upbringing of love and respect for work, the best qualities of human morality.
As a rule, guests from neighboring regions were invited to labor holidays, which contributed to the establishment of broad contacts between the farms of the districts, both of Dagestan and neighboring republics.
This talk about national traditions and customs would be incomplete if we do not touch on family and household customs and traditions. Therefore, strengthening the continuity of generations on the basis of national traditions of the people is one of the meanings of the unity of the peoples of Dagestan. As for family traditions, they are based on the awareness of the family members of their common roots: the further and deeper they go into the past, the stronger they are. Family traditions are among the important subjective conditions that have a significant impact on the process of upbrining. The family, like other social institutions, functions and exists, reproducing traditions.
The family, where relations between spouses are based on mutual respect and trust, is able to form children's respect for parents, elders and women, create an atmosphere of friendliness and humanism.
The family also begins the formation of such traditions and customs as a sense of high responsibility for one’s behavior and actions, collectivism, a keen sense of justice, a willingness to respond to someone else's misfortune and even sacrifice oneself for the sake of unjustly offended, love for the native land, diligence, etc.
Family traditions and customs are designed to assist in the change of family relations that act as mechanisms for the transfer of such personally and socially significant qualities of a person as love, kindness, compassion, understanding, willingness to help a loved one.
Traditions and customs reflect the national, cultural and religious characteristics of the family and the professional affiliation of its members.
A big holiday in the Dagestan village is a wedding, which is always held solemnly. It always remains in the memory as a bright holiday, a synonym of the triumph of love, happiness and joy. The wedding was accompanied by a series of rituals and actions, colorful rituals, which not only symbolized the birth of a new important social cell of society, but also served the purposes of entertainment. Wedding ritual brings up a sense of mutual respect in the young people, the right ideas about the honor and dignity of the individual, about their obligations to the family, team, society.
Formed in ancient times the wedding ritual has evolved over many centuries, losing partially or completely some vintage items and gaining new ones. They are in every particular historical period were caused by the peculiarities of the economic and spiritual development of society and the dominant ideological representations, as well as existing moral and aesthetic norms and perceptions.
It is known that marriage in most cases is preceded by matchmaking. Is it good or bad? I think it is good. Agreement of parents to the choice of a life partner, the coincidence of the views of the young people and their parents on this issue is, above all, a manifestation of respect for parents, interested thoughtful approach to the creation of a family. As a rule, public opinion approves such a step of young people. Or let’s consider engagment. In the fifties-early sixties of the XX century, in many places the period from the engagement to the wedding lasted at least a year.
During that time young people could get to know each other better, once again check and test themselves, avoid a rash step. As a result, such a decision had a positive impact on the strength of the marriage. Now, as a rule, these terms do not coincide. Typical for family and marriage relations in modern Dagestan is simultaneous registration of betrothal and matchmaking (about 1 to 2 months), and in some places weddings are appointed during the same month, which could play at any time of the year.
According to a number of researchers, in particular, A. G. Bulatova, in our time, you can take a lot of useful things from the custom of a traditional wedding: the richness of music, songs, dances, the multiplicity of actions with magical and symbolic content. In this sense, the wedding ceremony was a whole system of signs, the ultimate goal of which was to ensure the well – being and the desire of the offspring for the couple.
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SHANGARAEV R.N. Ideology as a Soft Power Tool in Turkish Foreign Policy
R.N. SHANGARAEV Candidate of Sciences (economics), researcher at IAMPof the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
IDEOLOGY AS A SOFT POWER TOOL IN TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey is beginning to rapidly increase its political and diplomatic presence in various regions, primarily in the post-Soviet space, presenting itself as a" big brother " for the Turkic republics or as a strategic partner in order to strengthen its position in the region and to secure the role of a mediator in solving problems and resolving disputes, which contributes to strengthening of its role in foreign policy processes, and is expressed, inter alia, in the export of values and cultural expansion.
Key words: soft power, Westernism, pan-Islamism, pan-Turkism, international security, Kemalism, strategic interests, Turkey, Russia, CIS.
The object of research in this article is the features of the modern Turkish foreign policy in its historical development, that is being transformed from osmanimanism to Kemalism and pan-Turkism, and its impact on the relations with Russia. In general, the basic ideology of the Turkish Republic in the last two or three decades are increasingly intertwined and "synthesized." It is often difficult to determine where Kemalism ends and neo-osmanism or Islamism begins, which is a reflection of the objective process of the interpenetration of the two main political elites, the development of a certain compromise between them. The article uses the methods of political-historical and comparative analysis to determine the place and role of relations between Russia and Turkey on the geopolitical map of the Middle East of Central Asia. The main conclusions are that the modern foreign policy concept of Turkey can be characterized as a policy of turbulent pragmatism or as a policy of national interests, in the understanding that is inherent in the leadership of the country at a certain point in the political situation, when foreign policy decisions are made based on the benefits of the short and medium term, and despite the crisis in the bilateral relations between Russia and Turkey, the fundamental parameters and strategic objectives of the sectional cooperation between the two countries remain.
The soft power used by many countries as attractive and attracting force should have obvious value content. Turkey's awareness of this fact was the result of the transformation in Turkish foreign and domestic policy. Thus, it seems necessary to consider the issue of ideological content of Turkey's policy, because it is in the sphere of ideology that a series of fundamental shifts in Turkey's approach to the issue of values have taken place as an expression of its socio-political consciousness, which resulted in a radical revision of the vector of its domestic and foreign policy development.
The key ideological levers that Turkey actively uses in its foreign policy in the era of globalization are the ideas of pan-Turkism and pan-Islamism, which meet the challenges facing the state.
The idea of pan-Islamism was formed in the second half of the XIX century, and of course its goal is a return to classical Islam, in which the priority is given to confessional community over the ethnic one. The idea of pan-Islamism met the interests of the Sultan of the Ottoman Empire Abdul Hamid II, and this idea was vital for the continued existence of the Ottoman Empire at the beginning of the XX century. However, this idea was developed in the 1990s by the government of N. Erbakan who became the first Islamic Prime Minister of the country. The main proclaimed purpose was a rapprochement with the countries, the majority of the population of which was Muslim, and Turkey acted as the creator of the so-called Islamic group of eight, an organization which acted as a kind of an alternative to the Big eight, and which became a political victim of the latter.
The idea of pan-Turkism can be considered in the context of a broader concept of pan-turanism, which consists in the creation of the great Turan, the ancestral home of the Turkic peoples stretching from the Balkans to Eastern Siberia .
After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the Declaration of the Republic by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, a new ideology was defined, which was called Kemalism. The ideology was focused on the transition of the Turkish Republic from a country with an Eastern, Islamic tint to a Western, more secular way of social and political life, i.e. the formation of Ataturk's nationalism.
Mustafa Kemal Ataturk carried out large-scale reforms in the country in order to westernize the state, as well as perceived the nation solely as a cultural community that is capable of creating its own state.
The ideology of Kemalism has long been a key in the domestic and foreign policy of the country. However, with the coming to power of the Justice and Development Party in 2002, there was a gradual shift in the perception of the methods of formation and implementation of domestic and foreign policy of the country. This kind of orientation has developed and strengthened since the time when the post of Foreign Minister was occupied by Ahmet Davutoglu, Professor of the University of Bakent, with an academic past, seriously influencing his views in foreign policy. Davutoglu, who was a follower of the school of liberalism, has not only formed a foreign policy concept, which includes a wide range of issues and areas of Turkey's influence, but also theoretically justified the interest of Turkey in a number of regions – from Europe to Africa and from China to the Balkans.
In his study, devoted to the analysis of Turkey's foreign policy prospects “Strategic depth: the international situation of Turkey,” Davutoglu formulated the idea that the geopolitical changes of the late XX - early XXI centuries, as well as the processes of globalization put on the agenda the issue of identity, which did not attract due attention during the cold war . In this regard, according to Davutoglu, Turkey, which was established in the early twentieth century as a nation-state, should recall its Ottoman past, which defines a special "strategic depth" of Turkish foreign policy and imposes a number of geopolitical obligations on the country. The formation of a new foreign policy strategic thinking, based on historical and cultural wealth and geographical location, gives impetus to Turkey's foreign policy and also provides for the country's role as a regional and global actor in international relations.
The key work of Davutoglu for the first time spoke about the need for Turkey to move away from the classical Western, primarily European, vector of its foreign policy and considere its identity in a broader sense, i.e. not only as the Turkist, within the framework of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's nationalism, but also as Islamists of Turkic dimensions. Secularization, which caused the rejection of Islamic identity and the loss of contacts with a number of countries that in the distant past were part of the Ottoman Empire, had a negative impact on the relations of the Republic of Turkey with the countries of the Middle East, which was not in the strategic interests of modern Turkey .
The end of the cold war had an impact on the transition of the world from an equitable, sustainable state to a state of active and permanent transformation. If earlier Western NATO partners regarded Turkey as an ally, which is supposed to pursue a policy of deterrence, especially military, in respect of neighboring countries and countries in the region, and it slowed down the country's own foreign policy, at the present stage, Turkey, having ceased to be an instrument of foreign Western policy, needs not only to switch to an independent formation of the regional political agenda, but also to determine the methods through which this transformation will be carried out. Davutoglu tries to draw the public's attention to the concepts of values, culture and rich history. In this case, Turkey's active presence in the region should be ensured not only by the development of economic ties, but also by integration processes that are based on the ideas of cultural and historic commonality.
The range of Turkey's interests in their regional dimension is quite wide. Davutoglu listed such areas as: the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Mediterranean, the Caspian, the Central Asian and the Black Sea region. Such a wide geography dictates the need to define a new strategic approach to foreign policy: the rejection of the classical role of the bridge between the West and the East, which allowed Turkey to become to some extent a mediator in the interests of other countries, and a search for a new foreign policy subjectivity by using the potential of Turkey's soft power, based on its cultural and historical ties with the region.
The need for foreign policy changes is seen in two dimensions: the multi-vector nature of foreign policy makes it possible to avoid clashes on the international political field, ensuring a balance of forces and interests, and the implementation of the policy of "soft power" in respect of a number of countries becomes the guarantor of the security of the Republic.
Davutoglu, justifying his foreign policy concept, relied on the civilizational approach, arguing that in the modern world the concept of civilization as a cultural, historical and religious community, is relegated to the background of the concept of ideology. According to Davutoglu, at the end of the cold war, a number of regions in the world (primarily in Eurasia) became voids within the boundaries of geostrategic lines and formed free space for geopolitical maneuvers of both major world players and the neighboring countries.
The Muslim world, located in strategically important areas, is a zone of interest for a wide range of countries, because it is a kind of a node, an intersection of routes from West to East and from North to South. It is common knowledge that a number of Middle Eastern countries have huge reserves of minerals, and primarily energy resources. While Turkey does not possess such reserves, it has a special geostrategic position. The establishment of friendly relations with Muslim energy exporting countries and the use of its own transit potential can ensure a stable future and energy security of Turkey .
The former Prime Minister of Turkey and the author of the country's modern foreign policy, Davutoglu, proposed the idea of mutual exchange of values and civilizational dialogue as one of the ways to achieve balance and harmony in the world political system, focusing on the possibility of Turkey as the successor of the Ottoman Empire.
The attitude to the Ottoman past, as a common space-time continuum for many peoples, allows Turkey to present its experience as a potential common denominator for resolving crises and problems, creating a new regional dynamics within the Eurasian continent, with the inclusion in this process of not only ethnically and linguistically close, but also distinct peoples. In other words, Turkey's foreign policy, often referred to as "neo-Ottomanism", aims to spread its influence over a number of regions and peoples, using the rhetoric of the common Ottoman past.
Inclusion in the zone of its influence of the countries of the Middle East and the Balkans regions, as well as the ambitious foreign policy of promotion aimed at Africa, Asia and Latin America require Turkey to realize the impossibility of applying to such regions of the classic American foreign policy the "carrot and stick" model. In accordance with these considerations, the Turkish foreign policy is based on the idea of common historical destiny and mutual development of cultures.
In general, the modern foreign policy concept of Turkey can be characterized as a policy of turbulent pragmatism or as a policy of national interests, in the meaning that is inherent to the country's leadership at a given point in the political situation, when foreign policy decisions are made based on the benefits of the short and medium term.
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STEPANOV S.A., IVANOVA E.A. "Twitter Policy" as a Phenomenon of the Modern Political Process
S.A. STEPANOV Doctor of Sciences (history), Professor at the Chair of political analysis and management, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia
E.A. IVANOVA Candidate of Sciences (political sciences), senior lecturer at the Chair of political analysis and management Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia
"TWITTER POLICY" AS A PHENOMENON OF THE MODERN POLITICAL PROCESS
The article highlights new trends in the modern political process in the era of information technology. The phenomenon of formation of the social network Twitter as one of the main information channels of political events is considered.
Key words: social networks, Twitter, digital diplomacy, politics, information technologies.
Modern realities are such that an ordinary citizen can no longer imagine everyday life without the use of information technology. Virtual communication in all kinds of chats and messengers displaces conversations on mobile phones and even that with the help of Skype video communications. Online shopping and online shopping are thriving, getting more and more orders from people shopping online. The sphere of household services, housing and communal services, also moved to the information space, leaving behind paper receipts and queues at the cash desk. Schoolchildren fill out electronic diaries, and pre-school children skilfully use modern gadgets. The latest political and economic developments in the world, the weather forecasts and the currency rates are also recognized thanks to a global network that provides the latest and most up-to-date information. All this is no surprise. Imperceptibly, the Internet has become an integral part of our lives.
According to the statistics of the authoritative source internetworldstats, the number of Internet users according to the latest data presented at the end of 2017 amounted to more than 4 billion, which means that more than half of the world's population are Internet users.
The following statistics confirm that people all around the world increasingly enter internet from their smartphones, using the mobile Internet, which is becoming more accessible. Special attention should be paid to the steadily increasing number of users of social networks, more than 3 billion users, according to the latest data, which is almost half of the total population of the planet.
The first place among the users of social networks, by right, belongs to the brainchild of Mark Zuckerberg Facebook with an audience of 2.20 billion active users monthly as of March 31, 2018. Many prominent politicians of our time have Facebook accounts. Among Facebook accounts of many prominent politicians we would like to note the accounts of the following politicians with the most number of subscribers and active publications: President Barack Obama (53.3 million subscribers), President Donald Trump (24.5 million subscribers), the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko (759 thousand subscribers), President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan (8.7 million subscribers), Prime Minister of Cambodia, Hun Sen (a little less than 10 million subscribers), the Prime Minister of India Modi Narenda (over 43 million subscribers) and many others. As you can see, one social network – Facebook unites politicians, completely different from each other, who representat different political regimes from different continents and parts of the world and different religions.
However, we would like to dwell on the social network "Twitter," headquartered in the United States of America, which is a microblogging system that allows you to exchange short messages within 140 characters for public exchange using a web interface. Created by a young American programmer Jack Dorsey in 2006, "Twitter" soon gained popularity around the world. Since April 26, 2011, the Twitter interface began to support the Russian language.
Researchers predict that by the end of this year, 2018, the number of active Twitter users will reach 400 million people, which is an impressive audience and can compete with many other sources of political information.
Official Twitter accounts have such high-ranking politicians as: Mexican President Enrique peña Nieto (@EPN 7.2 million subscribers), Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, Prime Minister and Vice President of the United Arab Emirates (@HHShkMohd 9.24 million subscribers), Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, has two accounts in Russian and English (@medvedevrussia while 5.42 million subscribers, @MedvedevRussiaE 1.13 million subscribers), Dilma Rousseff, President of Brazil (@dilmabr with just over 6.1 million subscribers), Prime Minister of India Narendra modi (@narendramodi more than 42.8 million subscribers), and of course the forty-fifth President of the United States Donald trump (@realDonaldTrump 52. 3 million subscribers) . Profiles have also such people as Pope Francis (@Pontifex 17.8 million subscribers) in blogs which spiritual guidance, wise advice on a variety of issues from parenting to economics; the Dalai Lama (@DalaiLama 18.8 million subscribers), on whose the page there are practically no official messages, mostly spiritual guidance and advice on how to achieve happiness and harmony.
On the official Twitter site, the developers give a definition that sounds like this: "Twitter is a platform where you can find out what is happening in the world right now and what people are saying about it." Indeed, the main distinctive feature of obtaining information on Twitter is its lightning speed, and in our age of breakneck speeds, this type of communication is becoming increasingly popular. What is happening in the world here and now you can only find out by opening your profile in the social network by logging into the application from your smartphone. Perhaps, information has never been so accessible to the general public. No need to wait for the "fresh" morning newspaper, the next news release or announcer on the radio, as it was before. And even political information has become available to every Internet user. For example, you can tap one button to subscribe to the account of US President Donald Trump and one of the first to read that, for example, the American leader took a decision on a military intervention in Syria.
"Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and "smart!" You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!" (3:57 – 11.04. 2018. U.S. President Donald Trump’s official account) .
Or the thoughts that relations between Russia and America "is worse now than it has ever been, and that includes the Cold War."
«Our relationship with Russia is worse now than it has ever been, and that includes the Cold War. There is no reason for this. Russia needs us to help with their economy, something that would be very easy to do, and we need all nations to work together. Stop the arms race?» (4:37 – April 11, 2018 U.S. President Donald Trump’s official account) .
No news channel is able to keep up with such lightning-fast events and news, but there is a solution, it is published and every Twitter user can see it. The media have only to announce the news releases with the following phrases: "the US President Donald Trump wrote in his Twitter account…"
The American President has repeatedly used the phrase "Fake news"in his speeches. "Fake news" means forgery, lies, and he used this phrase referring to the leading American news channels. During the first three weeks after becoming President Donald Trump in his Twitter account six times criticized the New York Times, twice opposed the CNN, once criticized the ABC, NBC and The Washington Post.
Perhaps it is partly for this reason that the American President prefers to make loud statements in person and directly using Twitter.
Whether he has become closer to his supporters and voters is an ambiguous question, but the number of subscribers to his Twitter account is growing steadily. For example, only within the framework of our study from may 8 to may 30, 2018, in less than a month, the audience reading the messages of the American President increased from 51.3 million to 52.3 million , this indicates the great interest of the Internet community to this account. But not all subscribers of Donald Trump are his supporters, one may also see tough criticism, to which the head of the White House, at times, also reacts harshly. The U.S. Supreme Court heard the case on whether the President of the United States has the right to block his Twitter subscribers. According to New York Daily News , Manhattan Federal Court Judge Naomi Buchwald concluded that Donald Trump's @realDonaldTrump account is a "public forum" and users are protected by the First Amendment to the US Constitution guaranteeing freedom of speech. Blocking subscribers because of their political statements is discrimination. One of the blocked subscribers was Rebecca Buckwalter from the Center of American progress. She had the temerity to comment on Trump's statement that he would not have won the election if he had relied on "fake" media. She replied: "To be fair you didn't win the WH: Russia won it for you". After a short time, she was blocked by the President of the United States and for this reason went to court.
In our opinion, it is simply impossible not to note the importance of President Trump's posts if there is such a precedent as an appeal to the court because of a message on the social network, which seemed unthinkable just a few years ago.
However, there is a different point of view regarding the currently so popular account of the head of the United States, which was voiced by the Russian publicist and well-known blogger Maxim Kononenko. The Boston Globe with reference to two mysterious informants writes about how actually President Donald Trump’s Twitter account is arranged. It turned out that the American President himself does not write on Twitter. It turns out that he has special media aides who write tweets in several options, of which President chooses those he likes. Now listen carefully, because it is worth hearing: these same media aides write tweets to Donald Trump the way they think he would have written them himself. That is, put a lot of exclamation marks, write in capital letters, put any commas and even make special spelling mistakes that bloggers and the press around the world are so fond of discussing. And when bloggers and the press around the world are horrified because Donald Trump is such a chump, his media aides rejoice and drink Bourbon because that's what they really wanted. Because such a President is closer to the people. And it means that there are non-illusory chances for a second term .
This point of view is also very interesting and is there due to the fact that "being closer to the people" is not the worst strategy and "being a good chap" for a large number of voters thanks to the social network is a possible key to success. It is impossible not to recall and draw a parallel with the models of interaction with the population, with the voters of American presidents 10 or 20 years ago. A suit, a tribune with the American coat of arms or an Oval office, carefully prepared speech memorized or read from paper, accurately verified on time. President Trump decided to rebel against the established system and build his communication channel using Twitter messenger. However, there are hitches with the feedback so far, such as an appeal to the court and complaints of American citizens, considered by us earlier, but nevertheless, it works, people write, respond and comment, make reposts and retweets of the President's statements to their page.
An important difference between Twitter and other social networks is that here the emphasis is not on communication between friends, but on the need to be aware of the events that occur in their lives. Brevity, convenience, efficiency, a wide range of readers, all this makes "Twitter" the most popular blogging service, note experts on the study of modern social networks.
"Twitter" becomes a mechanism for creating political events, with the active participation of citizens. And this process is of particular importance when it comes to creating policy in the international arena. All of this led to Matthias Lufkens, managing Director of Burson-Marsteller, that may be considered a pioneer in the study of diplomacy in social media, suggested the term Twiplomacy ("Twitter plus diplomacy"). The term Twiplomacy refers to the use of Twitter by heads of state, heads of international intergovernmental organizations and diplomats to bring together positions on international issues. In 2011, Matthias Lufkens showed at the conference how presidents and leaders used Twitter to maintain diplomatic contacts with other political actors. In addition, he noted that Twitter is an important system of diplomatic interaction, along with other similar services, such as Facebook-diplomacy and Youtube-diplomacy.
In our opinion, we can start talking about "Twitter policy", the birth of which we are witnessing now. Important political issues, official congratulations and other messages are sent by the world political elite to each other in the global network just as the future meetings and possible deals. All this is happening in front of a multi-million audience and each user feels a part of it, can leave a comment, "like" it or save the page for discussion with colleagues and friends. The involvement of ordinary citizens in the global world political process is growing, which, in our opinion, is an excellent prerequisite for increasing the interest of the general population in politics and, perhaps, an effective mechanism in the fight against political absenteeism inherent in modern youth.
In conclusion, we would like to note that recent political events clearly demonstrate that the global Internet is increasingly penetrating all spheres of society, including political life. Modern information technologies are developing so rapidly that it is simply impossible to resist it or deny the scale captured by the information space. There are new forms of interaction between political actors, new channels of communication and interaction between the state and the citizen. Modern realities are such that those wishing to succeed in the political field, to have supporters, to enlist the support of potential voters, it becomes necessary to be open for communication, to have accounts in social networks and messengers.
Twitter has become an innovative tool of public policy, changing the form and scale of involvement of ordinary citizens in the modern world political process.
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